Recent Houthi threats and attacks tied to Saudi shipping and broader regional tensions have introduced significant volatility into Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes, pushing trader-implied odds into a near-even split between the 160-179 and 180-199 ship ranges at 38% each. Recent Kpler data show daily commodity vessel crossings stabilizing near 30-40 after earlier drops of up to 50% from pre-disruption baselines, reflecting rerouting decisions, elevated war-risk premiums, and selective blockades that suppress flows without fully halting them. Key swing factors include any escalation in maritime incidents or successful de-escalation talks that could shift volumes toward or away from the sub-160 bucket (30.5%) versus the 200+ tail (27%), with the week of August 17 hinging on real-time risk assessments by major carriers.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया17 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
17 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
<160 38%
160-179 38%
180-199 38%
200+ 26%
नया
नया
23 अग, 2026
<160
38%
160-179
38%
180-199
38%
200+
26%
<160 38%
160-179 38%
180-199 38%
200+ 26%
नया
नया
23 अग, 2026
<160
$60 वॉल्यूम
38%
160-179
$0 वॉल्यूम
38%
180-199
$0 वॉल्यूम
38%
200+
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks tied to Saudi shipping and broader regional tensions have introduced significant volatility into Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes, pushing trader-implied odds into a near-even split between the 160-179 and 180-199 ship ranges at 38% each. Recent Kpler data show daily commodity vessel crossings stabilizing near 30-40 after earlier drops of up to 50% from pre-disruption baselines, reflecting rerouting decisions, elevated war-risk premiums, and selective blockades that suppress flows without fully halting them. Key swing factors include any escalation in maritime incidents or successful de-escalation talks that could shift volumes toward or away from the sub-160 bucket (30.5%) versus the 200+ tail (27%), with the week of August 17 hinging on real-time risk assessments by major carriers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$60समाप्ति तिथि
23 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks tied to Saudi shipping and broader regional tensions have introduced significant volatility into Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes, pushing trader-implied odds into a near-even split between the 160-179 and 180-199 ship ranges at 38% each. Recent Kpler data show daily commodity vessel crossings stabilizing near 30-40 after earlier drops of up to 50% from pre-disruption baselines, reflecting rerouting decisions, elevated war-risk premiums, and selective blockades that suppress flows without fully halting them. Key swing factors include any escalation in maritime incidents or successful de-escalation talks that could shift volumes toward or away from the sub-160 bucket (30.5%) versus the 200+ tail (27%), with the week of August 17 hinging on real-time risk assessments by major carriers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$60समाप्ति तिथि
23 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks tied to Saudi shipping and broader regional tensions have introduced significant volatility into Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes, pushing trader-implied odds into a near-even split between the 160-179 and 180-199 ship ranges at 38% each. Recent Kpler data show daily commodity vessel crossings stabilizing near 30-40 after earlier drops of up to 50% from pre-disruption baselines, reflecting rerouting decisions, elevated war-risk premiums, and selective blockades that suppress flows without fully halting them. Key swing factors include any escalation in maritime incidents or successful de-escalation talks that could shift volumes toward or away from the sub-160 bucket (30.5%) versus the 200+ tail (27%), with the week of August 17 hinging on real-time risk assessments by major carriers.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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