Recent high-level US-Iran talks in Switzerland on June 21–22 concluded with mediators Qatar and Pakistan reporting “encouraging progress” and agreement on a roadmap for a final deal within 60 days under the Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17. Technical-level sessions continue this week at the same venue, covering nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related security issues, with Iran agreeing to host IAEA inspectors. The framework extends the ceasefire and structures follow-on negotiations, though Israeli actions in Lebanon and statements from both sides introduce ongoing variables. These verified diplomatic steps and scheduled technical meetings form the primary recent catalysts shaping trader assessments of timing for the next round.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIran hints openness to talks after releasing Iranian-American citizen
On July 17, 2026, Iran released an Iranian-American citizen and its chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, signaling a slight diplomatic thaw. However, this did not translate into a formal senior-level round by the market cutoff, and tensions remained high.
Iran hints openness to talks after releasing Iranian American citizen
July 31 dips to 13%3%
On July 17, 2026, Iran released an Iranian American citizen and its chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, signaling a slight diplomatic thaw. However, longstanding tensions and recent military actions kept the prospects for formal senior-level talks uncertain, reflected in continued low market prices for near-term negotiations.
Iran hints at openness to talks amid ongoing tensions and ceasefire deadline
July 31 dips to 10%3%
On July 17, 2026, Iran’s chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, and Iran released an Iranian American citizen, signaling a potential diplomatic opening. However, longstanding tensions and unresolved issues kept market expectations for a formal senior-level round by July 31 or August 31 low.
Iran declares peace deal void after US attacks, escalating hostilities
July 17 dips to 0%2%
On July 15, 2026, Iran publicly stated the peace deal was void following US military strikes, marking a significant escalation in hostilities. This development effectively ended hopes for imminent senior-level peace talks, driving the July 17 outcome price to zero and further depressing July 31 and August 31 prices.
Iran-US interim peace deal collapses amid renewed fighting and no concessions
July 31 drops to 21%11%
By mid-July, renewed fighting and Iran's refusal to make concessions led to the collapse of the interim peace deal signed in June. This diminished market confidence sharply in the likelihood of senior-level talks resuming by July 31, reflected in the price dropping to near lows.
Iran reiterates nuclear program stance amid collapse of interim peace deal
July 31 drops to 13%14%
By mid-July, the interim peace deal had effectively collapsed with resumed fighting and no public Iranian concessions on nuclear issues. This diminished prospects for formal senior-level talks by July 31, reflected in the market's low pricing for that outcome.
Reports indicate next formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks expected in Islamabad on July 11
July 17 jumps to 9%9%
Multiple credible sources reported that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks was likely to be held in Islamabad on July 11, raising market optimism for a meeting by mid-July despite Iran's public denials.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
July 17 surges to 63%42%
On July 11, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, casting doubt on formal negotiations
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran for the third time during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the resumption of formal senior-level talks, contributing to market declines for both July 31 and August 31 outcomes.
US official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite clashes
July 31 drops to 20%5%
On July 10, a US official stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. US officials reaffirmed commitment to ongoing technical talks, but no formal senior-level talks were announced, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Trump says US agrees to continue talks with Iran but declares ceasefire 'over' amid renewed strikes
July 31 drops to 21%7%
Despite renewed US airstrikes on Iranian targets and escalating tensions, President Trump announced that the US agreed to continue talks with Iran at Iran's request, but stated that the ceasefire is officially over. This mixed message contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for near-term formal talks.
Iran denies reports of imminent US-Iran peace talks resumption
July 17 drops to 0%14%
On July 10, 2026, Iranian officials publicly denied reports that formal US-Iran peace negotiations were about to resume, despite US claims that Iran sought to restart talks. This official denial reinforced market skepticism about near-term formal peace talks, impacting prices negatively for all near-term outcomes.
Pakistan hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks very soon, PM says
July 17 rises to 8%4%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
US launches attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, Iran denies imminent talks
July 31 plunges to 14%32%
The US launched multiple military strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks and Iran's state funeral proceedings, while Iranian officials publicly denied reports of imminent formal US-Iran peace negotiations, severely undermining market confidence for senior-level talks by mid-July.
U.S. affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 31 plunges to 35%19%
Despite recent military clashes threatening the ceasefire, U.S. officials stated that technical talks with Iran are ongoing, but no formal senior-level peace talks have been announced, maintaining low market confidence for a new senior-level round before mid-July.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption
July 17 drops to 0%14%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings. This military action and President Trump's statements calling the memorandum of understanding 'over' undermined confidence in the resumption of formal senior-level peace talks by July 17, contributing to market price drops to near zero.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about next formal round
July 31 dips to 10%4%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks, causing uncertainty about the resumption of formal senior-level negotiations. This event further decreased market confidence in talks occurring by July 31.
U.S. strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption of formal talks
The U.S. launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings, casting doubt on the timing of any next formal senior-level round. President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over' but allowed talks to continue, fueling market pessimism for near-term formal talks.
U.S. military strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks undermine confidence
July 17 dips to 0%3%
The U.S. launched attacks on Iran during peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings, and President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over.' These actions severely undermined market confidence in the resumption of formal senior-level peace talks by mid-July, driving prices for July 17 and July 31 outcomes sharply down to near zero.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes; Iran denies imminent peace talks resumption
July 17 drops to 7%5%
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliations during the state funeral period, US officials stated that technical talks for a lasting peace deal continue. However, Iranian officials denied reports of imminent senior-level peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for talks by July 17 or 31.
US officials reaffirm commitment to continue talks despite Trump’s statement
July 31 rises to 48%4%
On July 10, 2026, despite former President Trump stating the memorandum of understanding with Iran was 'over,' US officials publicly reaffirmed Washington's commitment to continue diplomatic talks, providing some support to market confidence though no formal senior-level talks were announced.
Iran denies reports of imminent US-Iran peace talks amid US military strikes
July 31 plunges to 13%23%
On July 10, 2026, Iranian officials publicly denied reports that formal US-Iran peace negotiations were about to resume, despite US claims that Iran sought to restart talks. Concurrent US military strikes on Iran and President Trump's declaration that the memorandum of understanding was 'over' severely undermined market confidence in near-term formal talks.
US attacks Iran amid ongoing peace talks, Trump calls talks a 'waste of time'
July 31 plunges to 14%32%
On July 10, the US launched attacks on Iranian targets during ongoing technical talks, with President Trump publicly expressing skepticism about the talks' value. This undermined market confidence in imminent senior-level talks by July 31, contributing to a sharp price decline for that outcome.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif holds talks with Iran and Qatar leaders to revive US-Iran negotiations
July 31 jumps to 24%7%
Pakistan's Prime Minister held discussions with Iranian and Qatari leaders to revive stalled US-Iran peace talks amid escalating tensions, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and slightly boosting market confidence for talks by late July.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption
August 31 dips to 43%1%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks and state funeral proceedings, with President Trump declaring the memorandum of understanding "over" but still allowing talks to continue. This military escalation and ambiguous statements undermined market confidence in a near-term formal senior-level round of talks.
U.S. official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite recent clashes
July 31 drops to 19%6%
Despite renewed military clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, a U.S. official confirmed on July 9, 2026, that talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing, though no formal senior-level talks were announced. This maintained low market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader delay next talks
July 31 drops to 57%5%
Following the death of Iran’s former supreme leader, funeral processions in early July delayed any potential formal senior-level talks. Qatar indicated the next meeting would occur after these events, contributing to market price declines for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 31 drops to 14%7%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Iran, US officials stated that technical talks with Iran are ongoing, signaling continued diplomatic engagement but raising doubts about formal senior-level talks resuming soon.
US affirms commitment to technical talks despite recent strikes on Iran
July 17 drops to 14%9%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran in early July 2026, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. This reaffirmation of ongoing technical discussions did not amount to formal senior-level peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal negotiations.
U.S. affirms continuation of technical talks despite recent military clashes with Iran
July 31 rises to 38%3%
Despite recent U.S. strikes on Iran and a fragile ceasefire, U.S. officials stated that technical talks with Iran are ongoing, but no new senior-level peace talks have been announced, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal negotiations.
U.S. affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
Despite renewed military clashes and strikes between the U.S. and Iran, U.S. officials stated that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal are continuing. This ongoing uncertainty and conflict further reduced market confidence in a formal senior-level round by July 31.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 17 drops to 12%7%
On July 9, 2026, a US official stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. This indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement but did not signal a formal senior-level round, maintaining low market confidence for talks by mid-July.
Mediators confirm US-Iran talks to resume after Khamenei funeral on July 9
July 31 jumps to 61%5%
Qatari and Pakistani mediators confirmed that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks would resume after the conclusion of Ali Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies on July 9. This confirmation solidified market expectations that no formal talks would occur before mid-July, supporting the higher probability for the July 31 outcome.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
On July 9, 2026, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal would continue despite recent military clashes, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no formal senior-level round, which kept market confidence low for near-term formal talks.
US official confirms continuation of technical talks despite recent clashes
July 31 dips to 12%1%
On July 9, 2026, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent military clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. This indicated ongoing low-level diplomacy but no formal senior-level talks, maintaining low market prices for near-term formal negotiations.
U.S. official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite recent military clashes
July 17 dips to 1%2%
Despite renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations in early July 2026, a U.S. official confirmed that talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. However, no formal senior-level talks were announced, contributing to declining market confidence for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US affirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent strikes
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Despite recent US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks, US officials confirmed on July 9, 2026, that technical talks with Iran would continue. This ongoing tension and lack of formal senior-level meetings contributed to the market's decline in confidence for talks by July 31.
US official confirms continuation of technical talks despite recent strikes
August 31 jumps to 54%10%
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks, a US official stated on July 9 that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal were continuing. This reassured some market participants about ongoing diplomacy but did not indicate a formal senior-level round, contributing to price fluctuations.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian military targets amid peace process uncertainty
July 31 drops to 60%13%
US military strikes on Iran on July 8, 2026, escalated tensions and cast doubt on the continuation of the peace process, despite no official cancellation of the interim peace agreement. This event contributed to a further decline in market expectations for formal talks by July 31.
US President Trump declares Iran peace memorandum 'over' amid renewed strikes
July 31 plunges to 25%28%
On July 8, US President Donald Trump stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was 'over' following renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations, casting doubt on the continuation of formal senior-level peace talks. Despite this, US officials reaffirmed commitment to ongoing technical talks, but market confidence in near-term formal talks dropped sharply.
US and Iran exchange military strikes amid ongoing technical talks, raising doubts on peace talks
July 31 drops to 35%12%
In early July 2026, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian targets while technical talks continued, with Iran retaliating. These military actions eroded trust and led to US President Trump declaring the memorandum of understanding 'over,' causing further market declines in the likelihood of a next senior-level peace talks round by July 31.
Iran says no plans for next round of peace talks as US delegation heads to Islamabad
July 10 dips to 0%1%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated there were no immediate plans for a next round of negotiations, casting doubt on the timing of follow-up talks and causing market prices for early July deadlines to fall sharply to near zero.
US conducts strikes on Iranian military targets amid ongoing tensions
July 17 drops to 23%12%
US military strikes on Iranian targets raised tensions and cast doubt on the peace process, contributing to a sharp decline in market confidence for a next formal peace talks round by July 17 and July 31.
US President Trump declares Iran peace memorandum 'over' amid renewed strikes
July 17 plunges to 3%20%
On July 8, US President Donald Trump stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was 'over' following renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations. This cast doubt on the continuation of formal senior-level peace talks and led to a sharp drop in market confidence for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US President Trump declares MoU with Iran 'over' but allows negotiators to continue talks
July 31 plunges to 57%16%
On July 8, 2026, President Trump publicly stated that the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 was 'over' from his perspective, signaling a breakdown in the ceasefire agreement. However, he permitted US negotiators to keep engaging with Iran, creating mixed signals that pressured market confidence downward for near-term talks.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks likely to be held in Islamabad on July 11
July 17 surges to 36%16%
Reports indicated that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks is expected to resume on July 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, following the conclusion of Khamenei's funeral ceremonies. The talks will address nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and frozen assets, sustaining market optimism for a meeting by mid-July.
Iran’s ambassador to China vows to charge service fees for vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz
July 31 rises to 74%2%
Iran announced plans to impose service fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite US objections. Iran stated that friendly countries like China would receive special considerations. This issue remains a key sticking point in ongoing negotiations and affects the stability of the peace process.
Iran announces it will charge fees for passage through Strait of Hormuz after talks
July 10 dips to 2%1%
On July 4, Iran declared it would definitely charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz after the current ceasefire period, with possible special treatment for friendly nations. This announcement raised concerns about future negotiations and contributed to market declines in the probability of talks by earlier July dates, reflecting uncertainty about the diplomatic process.
Iran begins nine-day funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
July 10 dips to 1%2%
Iran officially commenced a nine-day funeral period for Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9, with millions expected to attend. The funeral period caused a diplomatic pause, with mediators confirming that formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks would resume only after the ceremonies concluded, reinforcing market expectations for a post-July 9 meeting.
Iran begins multi-day funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pausing peace talks
July 17 plunges to 0%47%
Iran commenced a six-day funeral for its late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9, leading to a pause in US-Iran peace talks as confirmed by mediators. This event caused market prices for talks by mid-July to plummet to near zero.
Iran announces funeral ceremonies for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9
July 31 surges to 73%17%
Iran held multi-day funeral ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which paused senior-level diplomatic talks. The funeral was a major state event attended by many international dignitaries, delaying the next formal round of US-Iran peace talks.
U.S.-Iran peace talks paused for funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
July 10 dips to 1%2%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to pause denuclearization and peace talks during the funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9. This pause delayed any potential new senior-level talks, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for talks by July 10 and July 17.
Iran insists on control and fees for Strait of Hormuz despite Omani opposition
July 10 dips to 2%1%
Iran rejected Oman's proposal for voluntary maritime service fees and insisted on imposing mandatory tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key sticking point in negotiations. This stance increased tensions and uncertainty about the peace process, affecting market confidence in earlier resolution dates.
US-Iran peace talks paused for funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader
July 3 drops to 0%5%
Denuclearization talks between the US and Iran were put on hold for a week as Iran prepared for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expected to last from July 4 to July 9. This pause delayed any formal senior-level peace talks, contributing to the market's drop in probability for near-term outcomes.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no progress toward lasting peace
July 17 plunges to 1%46%
The indirect technical talks held in Doha ended without signs of substantive progress toward peace, and Iran indicated the next meeting would be delayed until after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, dampening market expectations for near-term formal talks.
Doha technical talks between U.S. and Iran conclude without senior-level agreement
July 17 drops to 7%11%
The round of indirect technical talks ended with no progress toward a lasting peace agreement or scheduling of a new senior-level round. The market further discounted the likelihood of a formal senior-level round before July 17 and July 31.
President Trump says talks with Iran are “very good” after Doha session
Trump claimed the talks were “very good” despite the lack of a senior round, but no new meeting was announced. The market, already near 0 % Yes, stayed flat, confirming the market’s view that a senior round was not imminent.
Doha technical talks end with no senior‑level agreement
Both sides announced that the Doha technical talks had concluded without any senior‑level agreement, reinforcing the market’s belief that no new senior round would start before the deadline, keeping the Yes probability at 0 %.
Iran and US conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough on peace
July 3 dips to 0%1%
On July 2, 2026, Iran and the US ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without making headway toward a lasting peace agreement. The talks focused on previously resolved issues from the interim agreement, and Iran’s top negotiators did not attend. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after the funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader, signaling a pause in formal diplomacy and reducing chances of a senior-level round by early July.
Iran issues fresh warning on Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks pause for Khamenei funeral
July 3 plunges to 0%61%
After two days of indirect talks in Doha, Iranian officials left to prepare for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Qatar mediators reported positive progress and said further discussions would be scheduled after the funeral, causing market uncertainty and price volatility for near-term outcomes.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough
July 31 drops to 56%14%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between US and Iran ended with no progress toward a lasting peace deal or formal senior-level talks. The next meeting was postponed until after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, signaling delays in formal negotiations and contributing to market declines.
Doha technical talks conclude with no breakthrough toward lasting peace deal
August 31 dips to 49%1%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, and senior Iranian negotiators did not attend, signaling limited advancement toward formal senior-level negotiations.
US-Iran technical talks in Doha conclude with no breakthrough; next meeting after Iran's former leader's funeral
July 17 plunges to 32%15%
On July 2, indirect technical talks in Doha ended without significant progress toward a lasting peace. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, planned from July 4 to July 9, reducing chances of formal talks before mid-July.
Iran announces conclusion of technical talks in Doha, plans communication channel on MoU implementation
Iran announced the conclusion of its technical talks in Doha, reporting agreements on partial release of frozen assets and establishing a communication channel to oversee MoU implementation. The talks were paused ahead of Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral, delaying further senior-level negotiations and contributing to market uncertainty.
Doha technical talks conclude with no progress toward formal peace talks
July 17 drops to 32%10%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha concluded without any indication of progress toward formal senior-level peace talks. The discussions focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term formal talks and contributing to price declines.
Iran issues fresh warning on Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing Qatar talks
July 17 drops to 32%11%
On July 2, after two days of indirect talks in Doha, Iranian officials left as Tehran prepared for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran issued a warning for vessels to follow Tehran-designated routes through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling ongoing tensions despite diplomatic progress. Qatar confirmed talks would continue after the funeral, indicating delays in formal negotiations.
Doha indirect technical talks conclude with no breakthrough; next meeting postponed
July 10 plunges to 4%33%
On July 2, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha concluded without significant progress toward a lasting peace. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying formal senior-level talks and causing market prices for earlier dates to drop further.
Qatar announces next US-Iran meeting after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader
Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that the next US-Iran meeting would be scheduled at the earliest possible time after the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, planned from July 4 to July 9. This delay contributed to market skepticism about talks occurring by early July dates.
Indirect technical talks between U.S. and Iran conclude in Doha with no breakthrough
July 31 dips to 65%1%
On July 2, indirect technical talks between the U.S. and Iran concluded in Doha without significant progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on issues resolved in the interim agreement, and Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, delaying the next formal round.
Qatar reports positive progress in US-Iran talks but no direct senior-level meetings
July 17 drops to 35%12%
On July 2, Qatar announced that US and Iranian negotiators met separately with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, describing progress as positive. However, no direct senior-level US-Iran meetings occurred, and Iran publicly denied formal talks were scheduled, maintaining market doubts about a formal senior-level round by early July dates.
Qatar states next US-Iran meeting to occur after Iran's former leader's funeral
July 10 dips to 2%4%
Qatar, a mediator, announced that the next meeting between US and Iran would take place only after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying any formal senior-level talks and lowering market expectations for July 10 and 17 rounds.
Doha technical talks pause for Iran’s former Supreme Leader’s funeral, no senior talks scheduled
July 17 drops to 7%12%
On July 2, 2026, mediators announced a pause in US-Iran technical talks in Doha to observe funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader from July 4 to July 9. This pause further reduced market confidence in a next formal senior-level peace talks round by July 17, contributing to price declines.
U.S. and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha
July 10 plunges to 1%44%
The Doha technical talks focused on implementing the June agreement with no progress toward a lasting peace, confirming that no new senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks had occurred.
Doha talks conclude with no breakthrough on lasting peace deal
August 31 dips to 49%1%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal, focusing instead on implementing previously resolved issues. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, signaling a delay in senior-level talks and contributing to market declines.
U.S. and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no progress toward lasting peace
July 31 drops to 60%11%
The indirect technical talks ended without signs of progress toward a lasting peace agreement or a new formal senior-level round. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after the funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, further delaying formal talks and contributing to market price declines.
US-Iran peace talks temporarily paused for former Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral ceremonies
July 10 drops to 3%8%
On July 2, 2026, mediators reported that US-Iran peace talks in Doha were temporarily paused to observe the funeral ceremonies of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, scheduled from July 4 to July 9. This pause diminished expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July, reflected in further price declines for July 10 and July 17 outcomes.
Iranian embassy official in Pakistan says next round of US-Iran talks could take place this week or early next week
July 10 drops to 4%9%
An Iranian embassy official in Pakistan indicated that the next round of talks between the US and Iran could occur imminently, either this week or early next week, briefly boosting market optimism for a near-term meeting.
Doha technical talks conclude without senior-level agreement; next meeting delayed for funeral ceremonies
July 17 plunges to 10%37%
On July 2, 2026, mediators reported that the indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without progress toward a lasting peace or a new senior-level round. The next meeting was postponed due to funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader from July 4 to July 9, reducing expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July and causing further price declines for July 10 and July 17 outcomes.
US-Iran peace talks in Doha temporarily paused for Khamenei funeral
July 10 drops to 3%11%
Mediators reported that US-Iran peace talks were paused to observe the funeral ceremonies of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9. This pause lowered market expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July, causing prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop significantly.
US-Iran indirect technical talks conclude in Doha with no breakthrough and funeral delay announced
July 10 plunges to 6%18%
Indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without significant progress. Qatar announced that the next formal meeting would be delayed until after the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader, causing early market options to plunge.
US-Iran indirect technical talks in Doha conclude with no progress toward senior-level peace talks
July 17 drops to 19%12%
On July 2, 2026, Iran and the United States concluded a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without making headway toward a lasting peace agreement. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, reducing chances of a senior-level round before mid-July.
Doha indirect technical talks conclude with no breakthrough on lasting peace
July 31 dips to 66%2%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on previously resolved issues, and senior Iranian negotiators did not attend. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, contributing to market doubts about a formal senior-level round by July 31.
Doha technical talks conclude with no progress toward formal peace talks
July 31 dips to 67%1%
On July 2, 2026, the round of indirect technical talks in Doha ended without signs of progress toward a lasting peace or scheduling a new senior-level round. The talks focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, reinforcing market doubts about near-term formal negotiations and contributing to price declines.
Doha talks conclude with no progress toward formal senior-level peace talks
July 31 dips to 70%3%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without signs of progress toward formal senior-level peace talks. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying prospects for near-term formal talks and contributing to market declines.
Doha technical talks paused for funeral ceremonies of Iran's former Supreme Leader
July 17 drops to 13%5%
Mediators announced a pause in technical talks to observe funeral ceremonies from July 4 to July 9, further reducing market expectations for a formal senior-level peace talks round before mid-July, reflected in continued price declines.
Qatar reports positive progress in US-Iran talks, next round after Khamenei funeral
Qatar announced that separate meetings between US and Iranian negotiators made positive progress on issues related to the MoU, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions after the funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader. The talks focused on frozen assets release and a communication channel for ceasefire disputes, signaling cautious progress despite unresolved nuclear and sanctions issues.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha, mediators report progress
Indirect technical talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan took place in Doha with no sign of breakthrough toward a lasting peace deal. The absence of senior-level direct talks and ongoing indirect negotiations contributed to declining market confidence for the July 31 deadline.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
August 31 drops to 49%13%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, building on prior negotiations. These talks were not senior-level peace talks but aimed at implementing the existing framework, causing moderate market optimism for later talks but not immediate formal rounds.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation
July 17 drops to 42%5%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focusing on implementing the interim peace agreement. These talks were not formal senior-level negotiations but technical discussions, which did not qualify as a new round of peace talks, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term outcomes.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 10 plunges to 0%45%
On July 1, 2026, U.S. and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect, technical talks in Doha, building on the June 22 Switzerland meeting. These talks focused on implementing the prior agreement but were not formal senior-level peace talks, causing market prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop sharply.
US and Iranian officials hold technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
August 31 drops to 50%12%
On July 1, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, building on prior negotiations. Vice President JD Vance described talks as "going well," but these were not senior-level peace talks, leading to moderate market optimism for talks by August 31 but not July 31.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 10 plunges to 1%44%
US and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on implementing the prior agreement but without formal senior-level negotiations. This caused market prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop sharply, reflecting reduced expectations for a formal senior-level round by those dates.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
August 31 drops to 49%13%
On July 1, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through mediators, focusing on implementing the interim peace agreement. Vice President JD Vance described the talks as "going well," but emphasized it was still early, maintaining some market confidence for talks by August 31.
US and Iran hold separate indirect technical talks in Qatar, agree to continue discussions
July 31 jumps to 75%6%
US and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, making positive progress on issues related to the MoU, including frozen assets and ceasefire implementation, but no direct senior-level talks occurred. This maintained some market confidence for the July 31 outcome while earlier dates lost support.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 17 plunges to 18%29%
Technical talks focused on implementing the prior agreement were held in Doha but did not involve senior-level representatives or formal peace negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for the July 17 outcome due to diminished expectations of a near-term senior-level round.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation efforts
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focusing on implementing the interim peace agreement. These talks were not formal senior-level negotiations, which kept market confidence moderate to low for a next formal round by July 31.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 3 plunges to 0%61%
On July 1, 2026, the United States and Iran engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha, facilitated by Qatari and Pakistani mediators. These talks focused on implementing the prior agreement but were not formal senior-level peace talks, causing market prices for earlier July rounds to drop significantly while the July 31 option remained more supported.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators hold indirect talks in Doha with mediators
July 17 dips to 43%4%
On July 1, U.S. and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, reporting "positive progress" and agreeing to continue discussions. These indirect technical talks, while not formal senior-level rounds, maintained diplomatic momentum but did not confirm a next formal round, contributing to market uncertainty.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha, no formal senior-level talks announced
July 31 jumps to 73%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks mediated by Qatar in Doha, focusing on implementing the interim peace deal. Both sides denied that these were formal senior-level peace talks, which kept market confidence low for near-term formal negotiations.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha, mediators report progress
August 31 drops to 50%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, with US Vice President JD Vance stating talks were "going well" though still early. This maintained some market optimism for future talks but clarified these were technical, not senior-level negotiations, limiting immediate impact on the market.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough
July 17 plunges to 19%16%
On July 1, 2026, the US and Iran ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without signs of progress toward a lasting peace deal, with Qatar indicating the next meeting would be delayed until after Iran's former supreme leader's funeral. This lack of advancement reduced market confidence in imminent formal senior-level talks by July 17.
US and Iranian delegations hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 17 plunges to 31%16%
On July 1, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha, focusing on implementing the prior agreement but not constituting a formal senior-level peace talks round. This caused market prices for earlier July rounds to drop significantly.
US and Iran resume technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation
July 31 dips to 61%1%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators. These talks were not formal senior-level rounds but aimed at implementing the previous agreement, contributing to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of formal talks by July 31.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough
July 31 drops to 62%11%
On July 1, 2026, the US and Iran ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha focused on issues like the Strait of Hormuz but showed no progress toward a lasting peace deal. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent senior-level talks, contributing to price declines for the July 31 and July 17 outcomes.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha, progress reported but no formal senior-level round
July 3 plunges to 1%44%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Doha, building on the June 22 Switzerland meeting. While progress was acknowledged by US Vice President JD Vance and others, these talks were technical and not formally recognized as a senior-level peace talks round, causing market prices for July 3 and July 10 outcomes to plummet.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance calls ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement a historic moment
July 31 dips to 71%1%
JD Vance described the diplomatic efforts as potentially transformative, emphasizing that the direction of talks depends on Iran's response to U.S. leverage. Despite military tensions and Iran's rejection of direct talks in Doha, the U.S. remained committed to diplomacy, sustaining moderate market confidence for a July 31 resolution.
U.S. and Iranian officials hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 31 drops to 74%10%
On July 1, U.S. and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focusing on implementing the June memorandum of understanding. Despite progress, no direct senior-level meetings occurred, and both sides publicly denied ongoing peace talks, contributing to market uncertainty about the timing of the next formal round.
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after indirect talks in Doha
July 31 surges to 74%20%
Following separate meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, US and Iranian negotiators agreed to continue discussions, with the next meeting to be scheduled after the funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This maintained market expectations for a formal round after the mourning period.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha with no senior‑level agreement
July 3 dips to 0%1%
Both sides held indirect, lower‑level technical talks in Doha but made no progress toward a senior‑level round. The market reacted sharply, driving the Yes probability to almost zero by July 3.
U.S. envoys meet Qatari prime minister in Doha; technical talks to follow
July 31 plunges to 45%21%
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha; both sides said they would hold separate technical talks later that week. The news reinforced the view that a senior‑level round was unlikely, pulling the Yes probability down to the mid‑30 % range.
Iran denies formal US talks scheduled, insists on conditions before resuming negotiations
July 3 dips to 14%3%
On June 30, Iran publicly stated that no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled at any level in the coming days and that it would not resume talks until conditions in the memorandum of understanding were met. This stance dampened market expectations for imminent senior-level talks, causing further price declines for near-term outcomes.
US envoy Witkoff and Kushner meet mediators in Doha; no high-level talks with Iran scheduled
July 17 jumps to 53%6%
US envoys met with mediators in Doha to discuss the Iran deal, but Qatar's Foreign Ministry stated no high-level talks with Iranian officials were planned, reflecting ongoing delays and uncertainty about formal senior-level negotiations, which influenced market prices downward for earlier dates.
U.S. and Iranian delegations hold separate technical talks with mediators in Qatar
July 31 plunges to 72%16%
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Qatari officials while Iranian experts also arrived in Doha for technical discussions. However, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman stated no direct talks with the U.S. delegation were planned, maintaining conditions related to Israel's military actions in Lebanon.
US envoy Witkoff en route to Doha ahead of scheduled peace talks with Iran
Reports confirmed that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was traveling to Doha for the scheduled peace talks with Iran on June 30, reinforcing the likelihood of the next formal senior-level meeting occurring on time. This news supported market prices for the July 3 outcome.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume Tuesday in Doha amid conflicting Iranian statements
July 31 surges to 88%15%
President Trump announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on June 30, 2026, for talks under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, despite Iranian officials denying any scheduled talks. This announcement caused a surge in market confidence for the July 31 outcome, peaking at 88%.
President Trump announces US-Iran meeting in Doha on June 30
July 31 drops to 73%11%
President Trump publicly stated that a meeting between US and Iranian negotiators would take place in Doha on June 30, raising market optimism for a near-term senior-level round. However, Iran denied that such talks were scheduled, creating uncertainty.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume Tuesday in Doha despite conflicting Iranian statements
July 10 drops to 38%7%
President Trump announced that US and Iranian officials would meet in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, despite Iran denying that formal negotiations had been scheduled. This conflicting messaging created uncertainty in the market about the timing and formality of the next round of talks.
President Trump announces U.S.-Iran talks to resume in Doha despite recent Gulf attacks
July 31 surges to 88%27%
President Trump stated that Iran requested a meeting in Doha, Qatar, scheduled for June 30, signaling intent to continue diplomatic engagement despite recent military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement temporarily increased optimism for talks by July 31, though Iran denied formal negotiations were scheduled.
President Trump announces next U.S.-Iran peace talks to be held in Doha, Qatar on June 30
July 3 surges to 35%24%
Despite recent regional attacks, President Trump confirmed on social media that Iran requested a meeting, scheduled for June 30 in Doha, Qatar, with mediation by Qatar and Pakistan. This announcement caused a notable increase in market prices for the July 3 outcome, reflecting heightened confidence in the next formal round of talks.
President Trump announces U.S.-Iran talks to resume in Qatar despite recent Gulf attacks
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
President Trump announced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha, Qatar, on June 30 or July 1, despite recent hostilities. Iran denied formal talks but agreed to technical discussions. This announcement caused some market volatility but skepticism about a formal senior-level meeting by early July dates increased, reflected in price declines.
Iran denies any scheduled talks with U.S. after Trump’s Doha claim
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
Trump reiterated the Doha meeting claim, while Iranian officials publicly denied any scheduled talks. The contradictory messages caused the market to swing sharply, dropping the Yes probability from 88 % to 63 % on the same day.
US and Iran to hold indirect technical talks in Doha amid tensions
July 31 jumps to 74%8%
US and Iranian officials held indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on implementing the memorandum of understanding, including frozen assets and Strait of Hormuz issues. Despite ongoing military tensions, these talks signaled continued diplomatic engagement.
Iran rejects reports of scheduled technical talks with US in Doha
July 10 drops to 13%10%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi denied that technical talks with the US were scheduled in Doha, creating uncertainty about the progress of negotiations and contributing to a decline in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
Trump announces Iran agreed to hold talks in Doha despite recent Gulf attacks
July 10 drops to 37%8%
On June 29, President Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to hold talks in Doha, Qatar, following recent military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement raised market optimism for upcoming talks, although Iran denied that final agreement negotiations had begun. The announcement influenced market prices, especially for the July 10 and July 17 outcomes, which saw volatility.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume in Doha after weekend clashes
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
Despite recent military clashes threatening the ceasefire, US President Trump announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha, Qatar, to continue talks. Iran denied direct talks but agreed to send a technical delegation, signaling cautious diplomatic progress.
US President Trump announces US-Iran meeting in Doha amid Iranian denial
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
On June 29, President Trump announced a US-Iran meeting scheduled for the next day in Doha, claiming Iran requested it. Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with the US, creating uncertainty about the timing and nature of the next formal talks. This conflicting information contributed to a decline in market confidence for the earliest July 3 outcome.
U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and plan talks in Qatar to resolve Strait of Hormuz dispute
July 31 dips to 77%2%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other and planned to hold talks in Qatar to address disputes over the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement but did not constitute a formal senior-level peace talks round, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations for the July 31 and July 17 outcomes.
Iran denies ongoing peace talks with US despite technical discussions
July 10 drops to 14%9%
Iran publicly denied that formal peace talks were ongoing, calling US statements deceitful, while US officials acknowledged only technical talks. This discrepancy reduced market confidence in a formal senior-level round by July 10 or 17.
Iran denies plans for immediate next round of US-Iran peace talks amid US delegation visit
July 3 drops to 32%13%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated there were no plans for the next round of negotiations despite the US sending a delegation to Pakistan. This skepticism introduced uncertainty, causing a decline in market prices for earlier July dates like July 3 and July 10.
US strikes Iran after attack on cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 71%2%
The US conducted military strikes on Iranian targets following an attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, testing the fragile ceasefire and raising concerns about the stability of the peace process. This event caused market uncertainty about the timing of the next formal talks.
Reports indicate no firm date set yet for next round of US-Iran talks, possible weekend window
July 3 plunges to 13%32%
Sources reported that while the US and Iran could return to Islamabad for another round of talks as early as the weekend, no firm date had been set, causing uncertainty and price volatility in the market for earlier dates.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister warns Strait of Hormuz safe passage cannot be guaranteed
July 31 jumps to 77%7%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements, raising regional tensions and complicating the peace process.
US and Iran agree to halt attacks and renew talks amid Gulf tensions
July 31 rises to 69%1%
Following a series of strikes and counterstrikes in the Gulf, Iran and the US agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks concerning the Strait of Hormuz dispute. This development suggested a fragile but ongoing diplomatic process, positively impacting market expectations for future negotiations.
U.S. and Iran to resume technical talks in Switzerland amid conflicting statements
Following the high-level talks, technical-level negotiations were scheduled to resume in Switzerland focusing on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions removal. The continuation of technical talks, rather than formal senior-level meetings, tempered market expectations for a near-term formal round.
US Secretary of State Rubio demands Iran's proxy support be addressed in memorandum talks
July 17 rises to 49%2%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Iran's support for regional proxies must be tackled in the ongoing memorandum talks, adding diplomatic friction to the timeline of the next formal round.
Pakistan hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks very soon, PM says
July 31 drops to 72%7%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting.
Pakistan expresses hope to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
July 17 surges to 63%16%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly stated hopes to host the next round of US-Iran talks very soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
US and Iran to resume technical talks in Switzerland end of June
August 31 dips to 47%3%
Following the high-level talks, US and Iran planned to continue technical-level negotiations focusing on nuclear program and sanctions removal, but these technical talks did not qualify as formal senior-level rounds, tempering market expectations for immediate peace talks.
Dispute arises over nuclear inspections during US-Iran talks in Switzerland
July 31 drops to 73%11%
The US and Iran publicly disagreed on whether Tehran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors to visit bombed Iranian sites, reflecting ongoing complexities in the negotiations. This dispute introduced uncertainty but did not halt the diplomatic process, influencing market perceptions of the talks' progress.
US Treasury issues 60-day waiver on sanctions for Iranian oil exports
July 31 dips to 70%4%
Following the MoU, the US Treasury issued General License X authorizing Iranian oil exports and related transactions for 60 days, signaling initial sanctions relief and economic incentives for Iran. This action supported the peace process and influenced market optimism for the July 31 outcome.
Iran's Supreme Leader authorizes Iranian delegation to participate in next US-Iran peace talks
July 17 surges to 65%18%
Reports emerged that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gave permission for the Iranian negotiating team to join another round of peace talks with the US, signaling a potential breakthrough despite earlier Iranian denials. This raised market optimism for talks by July 17.
US and Iran conclude first round of high-level talks in Switzerland with roadmap agreement
July 31 drops to 73%11%
The first round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland ended with mediators reporting progress and agreement on a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days, setting the stage for follow-on technical talks. This development increased market confidence in the likelihood of future formal talks, supporting higher prices for later dates.
Dispute arises over Iran's agreement to nuclear inspections during ongoing talks
July 31 plunges to 5%82%
Conflicting statements from the US and Iran about Iran's agreement to allow UN nuclear inspectors to visit bombed sites created uncertainty and dampened market confidence for a deal by July 31, contributing to price declines.
U.S. Treasury waives sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days
July 31 jumps to 73%7%
The Treasury announced a 60‑day waiver on sanctions against Iranian oil. The move was interpreted as a sign that the parties were moving toward a senior‑level follow‑up, briefly lifting market confidence and nudging the Yes probability upward.
President Trump says U.S.‑Iran talks will resume Tuesday in Qatar
July 31 surges to 88%22%
President Trump posted on social media that a meeting with Iran would take place on Tuesday in Doha. The claim created a sudden surge in market confidence, raising the Yes probability to a peak of 88 % on June 29.
US Secretary of State Rubio emphasizes no tolls on Strait of Hormuz in talks with Iran
July 31 dips to 71%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no country is allowed to charge fees on the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, a key point in US-Iran negotiations. This firm stance highlighted ongoing disagreements on maritime issues, affecting market confidence in the timing of next talks.
Iranian President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations
July 17 surges to 65%18%
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Pakistani officials mediating the peace talks, signaling continued diplomatic engagement following the June 22 Switzerland talks. This visit underscored Pakistan's central role as mediator and the ongoing efforts to finalize a peace deal, supporting market optimism for upcoming talks.
Iran’s President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan after US-Iran talks
July 17 plunges to 28%19%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made a state visit to Pakistan, a key mediator in the peace process, shortly after the Switzerland talks. This visit signaled ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighted the complexity and factional challenges ahead, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines for earlier July dates.
U.S. waives sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days following peace talks
The U.S. announced a 60-day waiver on sanctions for Iranian oil as part of the ongoing peace negotiations, signaling goodwill and commitment to the process. President Trump emphasized willingness to act if Iran does not comply, reinforcing market expectations for continued talks.
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