Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
नया
31 अग, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
12%
$2,110 वॉल्यूम
August 31
$2,090 वॉल्यूम
3%
September 30
$20 वॉल्यूम
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,110समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,110समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न