Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because he was formally elected supreme leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February strikes. The rapid, unanimous selection reflected regime priorities for continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats, overriding prior constitutional and ideological reservations about hereditary succession. Persistent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from those strikes, limited public visibility, and ongoing health speculation have sustained some uncertainty about his long-term capacity, keeping smaller probabilities attached to figures such as Alireza Arafi and others previously discussed as potential alternatives. No subsequent leadership change or formal challenge has altered the institutional outcome through mid-August 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.5%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी 2.4%
$38,661,126 वॉल्यूम
$38,661,126 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
83%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
2%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
2%
हसन रूहानी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 82.5%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 3.4%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी 2.4%
$38,661,126 वॉल्यूम
$38,661,126 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
$6,048,623 वॉल्यूम
83%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
$1,149,290 वॉल्यूम
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
$672,944 वॉल्यूम
3%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
$2,312,138 वॉल्यूम
2%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
$1,120,783 वॉल्यूम
2%
हसन रूहानी
$944,785 वॉल्यूम
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
$1,020,270 वॉल्यूम
1%
हसन खोमेनी
$1,425,550 वॉल्यूम
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
$776,892 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
$918,142 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
$437,732 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
$833,568 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
$535,558 वॉल्यूम
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
$3,145,258 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
$806,001 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मसूद रजवी
$397,970 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
$3,694,591 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
$146,761 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नविद शोमाली
$214,706 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
$199,243 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली मुतहरी
$836,283 वॉल्यूम
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
$434,050 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
$3,347,820 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग महसूली
$239,287 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
$388,272 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
$5,192,146 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
$281,818 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
$254,631 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
$306,727 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
$342,427 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because he was formally elected supreme leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February strikes. The rapid, unanimous selection reflected regime priorities for continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats, overriding prior constitutional and ideological reservations about hereditary succession. Persistent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from those strikes, limited public visibility, and ongoing health speculation have sustained some uncertainty about his long-term capacity, keeping smaller probabilities attached to figures such as Alireza Arafi and others previously discussed as potential alternatives. No subsequent leadership change or formal challenge has altered the institutional outcome through mid-August 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$38,661,126समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because he was formally elected supreme leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February strikes. The rapid, unanimous selection reflected regime priorities for continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats, overriding prior constitutional and ideological reservations about hereditary succession. Persistent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from those strikes, limited public visibility, and ongoing health speculation have sustained some uncertainty about his long-term capacity, keeping smaller probabilities attached to figures such as Alireza Arafi and others previously discussed as potential alternatives. No subsequent leadership change or formal challenge has altered the institutional outcome through mid-August 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
वॉल्यूम
$38,661,126समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because he was formally elected supreme leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February strikes. The rapid, unanimous selection reflected regime priorities for continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats, overriding prior constitutional and ideological reservations about hereditary succession. Persistent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from those strikes, limited public visibility, and ongoing health speculation have sustained some uncertainty about his long-term capacity, keeping smaller probabilities attached to figures such as Alireza Arafi and others previously discussed as potential alternatives. No subsequent leadership change or formal challenge has altered the institutional outcome through mid-August 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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