Ongoing tensions from the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, have driven repeated temporary Israeli airspace closures followed by reopenings. The July breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz sustain elevated risks from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. A June 2026 temporary closure after intercepting a Yemen-launched missile illustrates the pattern of short-notice disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories and airline restrictions reflect persistent volatility. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities reflected in trader consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$27,254,846 वॉल्यूम
15 जुल, 2026
31 अगस्त
5%
$27,254,846 वॉल्यूम
31 अगस्त
$1,222,965 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, have driven repeated temporary Israeli airspace closures followed by reopenings. The July breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz sustain elevated risks from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. A June 2026 temporary closure after intercepting a Yemen-launched missile illustrates the pattern of short-notice disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories and airline restrictions reflect persistent volatility. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities reflected in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,254,846समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, have driven repeated temporary Israeli airspace closures followed by reopenings. The July breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz sustain elevated risks from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. A June 2026 temporary closure after intercepting a Yemen-launched missile illustrates the pattern of short-notice disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories and airline restrictions reflect persistent volatility. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities reflected in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$27,254,846समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, have driven repeated temporary Israeli airspace closures followed by reopenings. The July breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz sustain elevated risks from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. A June 2026 temporary closure after intercepting a Yemen-launched missile illustrates the pattern of short-notice disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories and airline restrictions reflect persistent volatility. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities reflected in trader consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न