**Ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 MOU expiration has led traders to assign an 80.5% probability that no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final bilateral deal will pass by December 31.** The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day window—now expired without extension—for converting the ceasefire framework into a comprehensive accord covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with any final agreement to receive binding UNSC endorsement. Direct talks stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, persistent disagreements over uranium inspections and enrichment limits, sanctions timelines, and Hormuz access. Recent mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman has produced only limited technical discussions on navigation corridors, without advancing core nuclear or sanctions elements required for a UNSC resolution. US officials have signaled further sanctions pressure and asserted control over the strait, while Iranian statements emphasize no restart of negotiations absent prior MOU implementation. These developments, combined with the absence of a finalized accord or scheduled UNSC action, underpin the market’s assessment that the structural barriers and timeline constraints make passage by year-end improbable.