Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
↑ 5,00 $
3%
↑ 4,50 $
7%
↑ 4,25 $
37%
↓ 3,70 $
19%
↓ 3,60 $
11%
↓ 3,50 $
3%
↓ 3,25 $
4%
↓ 3,00 $
4%
↓ 2,50 $
4%
$4,569 Vol.
↑ 5,00 $
$395 Vol.
3%
↑ 4,50 $
$639 Vol.
7%
↑ 4,25 $
$1 Vol.
37%
↓ 3,70 $
$10 Vol.
19%
↓ 3,60 $
$0 Vol.
11%
↓ 3,50 $
$1,865 Vol.
3%
↓ 3,25 $
$16 Vol.
4%
↓ 3,00 $
$16 Vol.
4%
↓ 2,50 $
$405 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Volume
$4,569Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$4,569Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes