Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 79% implied probability due to its Claude family’s recent dominance on math benchmarks and high-profile reasoning demonstrations. Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 variants posted top scores on IMO 2026, USAMO 2026, and weighted math leaderboards as of early September 2026, while researchers used an internal model to formalize Wiles’ proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem in just 11 days with minimal human input. These results reinforce perceptions of superior step-by-step mathematical capability relative to competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch and claims of regained frontier status have lifted its odds modestly to 15.5%, but lag in the latest pure-math evaluations. With resolution at month-end, any new model releases, benchmark updates, or verified capability jumps in the next three weeks remain the key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 79%
OpenAI 16%
Google 2.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
$56,305 Vol.
$56,305 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
79%
OpenAI
16%
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 79%
OpenAI 16%
Google 2.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
$56,305 Vol.
$56,305 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
$15,993 Vol.
79%
OpenAI
$18,573 Vol.
16%
$7,964 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,433 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 79% implied probability due to its Claude family’s recent dominance on math benchmarks and high-profile reasoning demonstrations. Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 variants posted top scores on IMO 2026, USAMO 2026, and weighted math leaderboards as of early September 2026, while researchers used an internal model to formalize Wiles’ proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem in just 11 days with minimal human input. These results reinforce perceptions of superior step-by-step mathematical capability relative to competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch and claims of regained frontier status have lifted its odds modestly to 15.5%, but lag in the latest pure-math evaluations. With resolution at month-end, any new model releases, benchmark updates, or verified capability jumps in the next three weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$56,305Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 79% implied probability due to its Claude family’s recent dominance on math benchmarks and high-profile reasoning demonstrations. Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 variants posted top scores on IMO 2026, USAMO 2026, and weighted math leaderboards as of early September 2026, while researchers used an internal model to formalize Wiles’ proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem in just 11 days with minimal human input. These results reinforce perceptions of superior step-by-step mathematical capability relative to competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch and claims of regained frontier status have lifted its odds modestly to 15.5%, but lag in the latest pure-math evaluations. With resolution at month-end, any new model releases, benchmark updates, or verified capability jumps in the next three weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$56,305Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 79% implied probability due to its Claude family’s recent dominance on math benchmarks and high-profile reasoning demonstrations. Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 variants posted top scores on IMO 2026, USAMO 2026, and weighted math leaderboards as of early September 2026, while researchers used an internal model to formalize Wiles’ proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem in just 11 days with minimal human input. These results reinforce perceptions of superior step-by-step mathematical capability relative to competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch and claims of regained frontier status have lifted its odds modestly to 15.5%, but lag in the latest pure-math evaluations. With resolution at month-end, any new model releases, benchmark updates, or verified capability jumps in the next three weeks remain the key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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