Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election. Missouri’s 4th district remains a reliably conservative seat with a predominantly rural electorate and consistent Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent presidential voting. Alford’s strong primary performance and the district’s structural tilt have produced broad trader consensus around a Republican hold. The Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and organizational reach in the area. While a national Democratic surge or unforeseen candidate controversy could narrow the gap, historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages make significant shifts improbable before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
92%
Parti démocrate
9%
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$28,293 Vol.
92%
Parti démocrate
$16,249 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election. Missouri’s 4th district remains a reliably conservative seat with a predominantly rural electorate and consistent Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent presidential voting. Alford’s strong primary performance and the district’s structural tilt have produced broad trader consensus around a Republican hold. The Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and organizational reach in the area. While a national Democratic surge or unforeseen candidate controversy could narrow the gap, historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages make significant shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$44,542Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election. Missouri’s 4th district remains a reliably conservative seat with a predominantly rural electorate and consistent Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent presidential voting. Alford’s strong primary performance and the district’s structural tilt have produced broad trader consensus around a Republican hold. The Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and organizational reach in the area. While a national Democratic surge or unforeseen candidate controversy could narrow the gap, historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages make significant shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,542Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election. Missouri’s 4th district remains a reliably conservative seat with a predominantly rural electorate and consistent Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent presidential voting. Alford’s strong primary performance and the district’s structural tilt have produced broad trader consensus around a Republican hold. The Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and organizational reach in the area. While a national Democratic surge or unforeseen candidate controversy could narrow the gap, historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages make significant shifts improbable before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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