Current meteorological guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicates radiative cooling under clear skies and moderate humidity will drive Seoul-Incheon’s daily minimum to 24°C on August 18, aligning with the 98% market-implied probability. Ensemble model consensus shows limited overnight wind and no frontal passage to alter the thermal profile, consistent with late-summer climatology where August lows average near 23–25°C. Traders have converged on this outcome because recent model runs exhibit low spread and official forecasts have held steady. A realistic shift would require an unexpected surge of cooler air or measurement anomaly at the Incheon station, though such deviations remain improbable given the short forecast horizon and stable synoptic pattern.