**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.** Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Hong Kong le 18 août ?
La température la plus basse à Hong Kong le 18 août ?
28°C 78%
27°C 15%
26°C 5%
23°C ou moins <1%
NOUVEAU
$27,863 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$27,863 Vol.
18 août 2026
23°C ou moins
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
15%
28°C
79%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C ou plus
<1%
28°C 78%
27°C 15%
26°C 5%
23°C ou moins <1%
NOUVEAU
$27,863 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$27,863 Vol.
18 août 2026
23°C ou moins
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,990 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,609 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,295 Vol.
5%
27°C
$5,215 Vol.
15%
28°C
$4,506 Vol.
79%
29°C
$5,370 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$715 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$506 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$545 Vol.
<1%
33°C ou plus
$1,063 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.**
Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band.
Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$27,863Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.**
Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band.
Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,863Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.** Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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