Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing will experience thundershowers on August 26 under an active frontal system, with overnight lows projected near 20–22°C as cloud cover and precipitation limit radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological August minima of roughly 19–21°C while raising the chance of brief cooling below 18°C if heavier rain arrives. Conversely, any delay in the system or clearer breaks could allow temperatures to remain closer to seasonal daytime averages near 29–31°C before falling. With leading market-implied probabilities split nearly evenly between 17°C or below and 27°C or higher, traders appear to be pricing in residual model spread and the narrow 48-hour window for forecast revisions from updated runs.