**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
8%
12 ou plus
<1%
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,511 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
78%
8
$4,623 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,873 Vol.
1%
11
$2,845 Vol.
8%
12 ou plus
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,131Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,131Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le nombre de membres républicains de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 36 et 39 inclus ?
83%
Oui
Le nombre de membres démocrates de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 20 et 23 inclus ?
48%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains au Sénat ne remporteront-ils pas exactement trois élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
79%
Oui
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