**Record Republican House retirements have driven the 36–39 bucket to an 82.5% implied probability.** As of mid-August 2026, trackers such as Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery list 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents who will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle. This total includes both outright retirements from public office and members pursuing other offices such as governor or Senate seats. The elevated figure reflects an unusually high number of departures for a midterm cycle, exceeding recent historical benchmarks and concentrated among Republicans holding a narrow majority. Factors cited in reporting include institutional frustration, limited advancement opportunities, and individual decisions to run for statewide positions. Most announcements occurred earlier in the 119th Congress, with the count stabilizing in the mid-to-high 30s range by summer 2026. Additional late announcements or primary defeats could still shift the final tally modestly, but current confirmed departures keep the distribution tightly clustered around 36–39.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.1%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
31 août 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
5%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.1%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
31 août 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,174 Vol.
5%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Record Republican House retirements have driven the 36–39 bucket to an 82.5% implied probability.** As of mid-August 2026, trackers such as Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery list 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents who will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle. This total includes both outright retirements from public office and members pursuing other offices such as governor or Senate seats.
The elevated figure reflects an unusually high number of departures for a midterm cycle, exceeding recent historical benchmarks and concentrated among Republicans holding a narrow majority. Factors cited in reporting include institutional frustration, limited advancement opportunities, and individual decisions to run for statewide positions. Most announcements occurred earlier in the 119th Congress, with the count stabilizing in the mid-to-high 30s range by summer 2026. Additional late announcements or primary defeats could still shift the final tally modestly, but current confirmed departures keep the distribution tightly clustered around 36–39.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,889Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Record Republican House retirements have driven the 36–39 bucket to an 82.5% implied probability.** As of mid-August 2026, trackers such as Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery list 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents who will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle. This total includes both outright retirements from public office and members pursuing other offices such as governor or Senate seats.
The elevated figure reflects an unusually high number of departures for a midterm cycle, exceeding recent historical benchmarks and concentrated among Republicans holding a narrow majority. Factors cited in reporting include institutional frustration, limited advancement opportunities, and individual decisions to run for statewide positions. Most announcements occurred earlier in the 119th Congress, with the count stabilizing in the mid-to-high 30s range by summer 2026. Additional late announcements or primary defeats could still shift the final tally modestly, but current confirmed departures keep the distribution tightly clustered around 36–39.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,889Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Record Republican House retirements have driven the 36–39 bucket to an 82.5% implied probability.** As of mid-August 2026, trackers such as Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery list 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents who will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle. This total includes both outright retirements from public office and members pursuing other offices such as governor or Senate seats. The elevated figure reflects an unusually high number of departures for a midterm cycle, exceeding recent historical benchmarks and concentrated among Republicans holding a narrow majority. Factors cited in reporting include institutional frustration, limited advancement opportunities, and individual decisions to run for statewide positions. Most announcements occurred earlier in the 119th Congress, with the count stabilizing in the mid-to-high 30s range by summer 2026. Additional late announcements or primary defeats could still shift the final tally modestly, but current confirmed departures keep the distribution tightly clustered around 36–39.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le nombre de membres républicains du Sénat qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il exactement de 7 ?
78%
Oui
Le nombre de membres démocrates de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 20 et 23 inclus ?
50%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains à la Chambre ne remporteront-ils pas entre quatre et six élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
93%
Oui
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