Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 31 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 31 août ?
27°C or higher 61%
26°C 27%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
7%
26°C
27%
27°C or higher
61%
27°C or higher 61%
26°C 27%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
17°C or below
$251 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$254 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$497 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$342 Vol.
1%
24°C
$325 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,472 Vol.
7%
26°C
$879 Vol.
27%
27°C or higher
$3,215 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,152Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,152Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes