Persistent heavy rain and extensive cloud cover across the Seoul-Incheon region on August 31 are suppressing daytime heating and anchoring the maximum temperature near 25°C, aligning with the market's dominant 67.5% implied probability for that outcome. Multiple forecast models from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a high of 24–26°C under overcast skies and thunderstorms, consistent with late-August climatology where seasonal cooling follows peak summer and frontal systems frequently limit insolation. Recent developments show a prolonged precipitation event through the final weekend of August, with totals exceeding 50–100 mm in places, further reducing the likelihood of 27°C or higher readings that would require clearer conditions or stronger southerly flow. Model consensus remains tight around this range, though minor variations in timing or intensity of showers could shift the peak by 1°C.