Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 12, 2026, shows mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the middle to upper 80s, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on 86–89 °F. Primary drivers include strong daytime insolation, light southerly flow, and residual warmth from a broader warmer-than-average August pattern across the Northeast. The urban heat-island effect around Central Park adds a few degrees relative to surrounding suburbs, while weak steering currents limit rapid cooling. Model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though any afternoon cloud build-up or isolated shower could trim the peak by 1–2 °F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical August Central Park maxima near 83 °F, producing the observed concentration of probability in the upper 80s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à New York le 12 août ?
La température la plus élevée à New York le 12 août ?
86-87°F 48%
88-89°F 39%
84-85°F 14%
82-83°F <1%
NOUVEAU
$26,536 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$26,536 Vol.
12 août 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
48%
88-89°F
39%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 48%
88-89°F 39%
84-85°F 14%
82-83°F <1%
NOUVEAU
$26,536 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$26,536 Vol.
12 août 2026
79°F or below
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$3,471 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$3,453 Vol.
14%
86-87°F
$5,998 Vol.
48%
88-89°F
$3,988 Vol.
39%
90-91°F
$2,810 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$2,712 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$760 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$543 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$381 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 12, 2026, shows mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the middle to upper 80s, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on 86–89 °F. Primary drivers include strong daytime insolation, light southerly flow, and residual warmth from a broader warmer-than-average August pattern across the Northeast. The urban heat-island effect around Central Park adds a few degrees relative to surrounding suburbs, while weak steering currents limit rapid cooling. Model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though any afternoon cloud build-up or isolated shower could trim the peak by 1–2 °F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical August Central Park maxima near 83 °F, producing the observed concentration of probability in the upper 80s.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$26,536Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 12, 2026, shows mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the middle to upper 80s, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on 86–89 °F. Primary drivers include strong daytime insolation, light southerly flow, and residual warmth from a broader warmer-than-average August pattern across the Northeast. The urban heat-island effect around Central Park adds a few degrees relative to surrounding suburbs, while weak steering currents limit rapid cooling. Model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though any afternoon cloud build-up or isolated shower could trim the peak by 1–2 °F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical August Central Park maxima near 83 °F, producing the observed concentration of probability in the upper 80s.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,536Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 12, 2026, shows mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the middle to upper 80s, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on 86–89 °F. Primary drivers include strong daytime insolation, light southerly flow, and residual warmth from a broader warmer-than-average August pattern across the Northeast. The urban heat-island effect around Central Park adds a few degrees relative to surrounding suburbs, while weak steering currents limit rapid cooling. Model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though any afternoon cloud build-up or isolated shower could trim the peak by 1–2 °F. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical August Central Park maxima near 83 °F, producing the observed concentration of probability in the upper 80s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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