Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over the Chicago area on August 1, 2026, with daytime highs forecast near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of about 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with light northeast flow and possible morning cloud cover, is limiting afternoon heating and creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. Minor differences in model timing of any clearing or subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even split, while the low odds assigned to 74 °F or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or warmer advection before sunset. Updated short-range guidance later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 1er août ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 1er août ?
70-71°F 36%
72-73°F 35%
74-75 °F 20%
68-69°F 14%
NOUVEAU
$20,682 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$20,682 Vol.
1 août 2026
63°F ou moins
<1%
64-65 °F
<1%
66-67 °F
2%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
36%
72-73°F
35%
74-75 °F
20%
76-77°F
1%
78-79 °F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F ou plus
<1%
70-71°F 36%
72-73°F 35%
74-75 °F 20%
68-69°F 14%
NOUVEAU
$20,682 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$20,682 Vol.
1 août 2026
63°F ou moins
$778 Vol.
<1%
64-65 °F
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
66-67 °F
$2,185 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$2,713 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$3,425 Vol.
36%
72-73°F
$2,780 Vol.
35%
74-75 °F
$3,944 Vol.
20%
76-77°F
$2,255 Vol.
1%
78-79 °F
$498 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$458 Vol.
<1%
82°F ou plus
$498 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over the Chicago area on August 1, 2026, with daytime highs forecast near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of about 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with light northeast flow and possible morning cloud cover, is limiting afternoon heating and creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. Minor differences in model timing of any clearing or subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even split, while the low odds assigned to 74 °F or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or warmer advection before sunset. Updated short-range guidance later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$20,682Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over the Chicago area on August 1, 2026, with daytime highs forecast near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of about 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with light northeast flow and possible morning cloud cover, is limiting afternoon heating and creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. Minor differences in model timing of any clearing or subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even split, while the low odds assigned to 74 °F or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or warmer advection before sunset. Updated short-range guidance later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,682Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over the Chicago area on August 1, 2026, with daytime highs forecast near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of about 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with light northeast flow and possible morning cloud cover, is limiting afternoon heating and creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. Minor differences in model timing of any clearing or subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even split, while the low odds assigned to 74 °F or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or warmer advection before sunset. Updated short-range guidance later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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