Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's nuclear enrichment and disposing of highly enriched uranium, and providing sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable commitments to end hostilities. A February 2026 conflict involving US and Israeli strikes preceded the temporary truce, with late-May 2026 reports indicating a tentative 60-day framework agreement under discussion; however, recent renewed exchanges of fire, Iranian rejections of proposals, and unresolved differences over security guarantees and maritime access have tested the process. President Trump has described progress toward a memorandum of understanding while maintaining naval pressure, and any permanent deal by year-end would require addressing Iran's ballistic missile program and factional dynamics in Tehran alongside US congressional considerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIranian supreme leader warns US military bases are no longer safe
On June 2, 2026, Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that US military bases in the Middle East were no longer safe, signaling a hardening stance amid ongoing negotiations and military tensions, which dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump expresses frustration over stalled talks and shutdown of further negotiations by Iran
June 30 drops to 26%11%
On June 1, 2026, President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, calling the negotiation process boring, which dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump calls US-Iran negotiation process 'very boring' as talks stall
June 7 drops to 7%5%
President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, dampening near-term peace deal expectations.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and a drop in near-term peace deal probabilities.
Trump signals imminent decision on Iran peace deal amid mixed messages
December 31 drops to 71%10%
On May 29, 2026, President Trump indicated he was close to approving a peace deal with major Iranian concessions but expressed caution, causing market fluctuations. Iranian officials denied some reported terms, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about final agreement details.
Trump delays final decision on Iran peace deal amid unresolved issues
June 7 plunges to 4%17%
Despite progress, President Trump delayed final approval of the Iran peace deal in late May, citing unresolved points such as Iran's nuclear program and sanctions. This uncertainty caused market prices for near-term resolution dates to decline sharply.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump approval
October 31 jumps to 64%14%
On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval. This development increased market prices for longer-term outcomes but left uncertainty due to pending approval and unresolved issues.
US and Iran reach deal pending Trump's final approval
December 31 rises to 80%2%
Reports on May 28 indicated that the US and Iran had reached a peace deal subject to final approval by President Trump, reflecting significant diplomatic progress and impacting market prices positively for longer-term outcomes.
US and Iran reach tentative peace deal pending Trump's final approval
December 31 rises to 82%3%
On May 28, 2026, officials reported a tentative peace deal had been reached between the US and Iran, pending final approval from President Trump, which briefly stabilized market sentiment.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal
June 7 drops to 19%12%
Negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but the requirement for Trump's final approval introduced near-term uncertainty.
US and Iran reach preliminary 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval, causing market fluctuations.
Trump shares draft Iran peace agreement with allies including Israel
On May 28, 2026, President Trump circulated a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
President Trump circulates draft Iran peace agreement among allies including Israel
December 31 rises to 82%2%
President Trump shared a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
Treasury chief warns Oman of sanctions if it imposes Hormuz tolls
August 31 jumps to 53%12%
Bessent warned Oman against levying tolls on Hormuz traffic, signalling that the U.S. was still pressing for a permanent settlement, which helped temporarily lift the “August 31” odds to 53 %.
Oil prices fall on hopes for US-Iran peace deal amid ongoing disputes
On May 25, 2026, oil prices fell on optimism about a US-Iran peace deal, despite remaining disputes over key issues including the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This reflected market anticipation of a deal but also uncertainty about final terms.
US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 jumps to 56%12%
The US President announced the suspension of ‘Project Freedom’, a military operation designed to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as part of efforts to negotiate an agreement with Iran. This move was seen as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, moderately boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Trump ties any Iran peace deal to Abraham Accords
June 15 plunges to 16%56%
Trump publicly linked any permanent peace deal to the Abraham Accords, adding new conditionality that reduced market optimism for the “June 15” outcome (price fell from 72 % to 16 %).
US military strikes Iranian missile sites amid ongoing peace talks
On May 25, 2026, US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats, described as defensive, amid ongoing peace negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and tempered market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
US military strikes Iran amid ongoing peace deal negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%10%
On May 25, 2026, the US military announced strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and boats, tempering expectations of peace despite ongoing negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and volatility in the market for near-term peace deals.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in Hormuz
June 30 plunges to 28%33%
U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iranian missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining confidence that the cease‑fire would hold and pulling the “June 30” odds down to 28 % by early June.
US and Iran near broader peace agreement; memorandum of understanding close to finalization
December 31 jumps to 73%10%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations. President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding was close to finalization, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal.
Trump states memorandum of understanding close to finalization
July 31 surges to 71%18%
US President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was close to being finalized, suggesting progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire framework, which increased market optimism.
Secretary of State Rubio signals imminent peace‑talks announcement
December 31 jumps to 82%9%
Rubio indicated that an announcement on the peace talks could come soon, though he warned the deal might be time‑limited. The comment lifted the “December 31” odds to a peak of 82 % and also raised the “July 31” price to 53 % after a period of stagnation.
Secretary of State Rubio signals possible peace deal announcement soon
July 31 surges to 53%20%
On May 24, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that an announcement about the peace talks with Iran could come soon, raising market expectations. However, he cautioned that the deal might be time-limited and not a permanent peace agreement yet.
US‑Iran unveil 60‑day cease‑fire extension framework
June 30 surges to 61%27%
U.S. and Iran released a joint framework that would extend the cease‑fire 60 days, de‑mine the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear negotiations. The concrete step boosted confidence for later dates, pushing the “June 30” price to 61 % before it fell sharply.
Trump says peace deal still pending presidential sign‑off
June 7 plunges to 6%66%
Trump announced that the deal still needed his signature, creating uncertainty and causing the market to tumble across all outcomes (e.g., “June 7” fell from 72 % to 6 %).
US and Iran reach deal in principle to reopen Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 81%27%
On May 24, 2026, a US official stated that the US and Iran had reached a deal in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic point. This development was seen as a significant step toward peace, boosting market confidence in a permanent deal possibility, especially for the December 31 outcome.
US suspends 'Project Freedom' to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 rises to 12%4%
The US President announced the suspension of 'Project Freedom,' a military operation escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, seen as a positive indicator for peace talks.
US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement, memorandum of understanding close to finalization
December 31 jumps to 82%12%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for a broader peace agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which raised market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Trump announces US-Iran peace deal memorandum largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 72%18%
On May 24, 2026, President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement after months of conflict
December 31 surges to 82%19%
On May 24, 2026, credible reports suggested that the US and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement, which temporarily increased optimism and market prices for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
Reports indicate US and Iran are close to finalizing peace framework
June 15 surges to 50%23%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that the deal might be time-limited.
US and Iran agree in principle to a deal to wind down the war, final approval pending
December 31 jumps to 81%6%
On May 24, 2026, a senior US official stated that the US and Iran had agreed in principle to a deal that could end the war, but final approval by leaders could take days. This news caused further price increases for longer-dated outcomes as the market anticipated a permanent peace deal.
Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire amid ongoing negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%14%
On May 24, 2026, Iran's foreign ministry accused the US of violating the ceasefire with military strikes, casting doubt on the peace process and causing some market volatility.
President Trump states Iran deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 70%16%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
Trump announces near-finalized peace agreement draft with Iran
December 31 surges to 70%16%
On May 23, President Trump announced a near-finalized peace agreement draft with Iran, signaling significant progress toward a permanent deal. This announcement boosted market confidence for longer-dated resolution options, reflecting optimism about a lasting peace.
US and Iran to announce draft of peace deal within 24 hours
December 31 jumps to 75%10%
On May 23, 2026, top negotiators from the US and Iran approved a draft peace deal, which was sent to leaders of both nations for final approval. This development heightened market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of the year and mid-year dates.
President Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' after regional talks
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced on social media that a peace deal with Iran was 'largely negotiated' following calls with Gulf allies, Pakistan, and Israel. This announcement boosted market optimism significantly, though Iran had not officially confirmed the deal, causing some uncertainty.
US and Iran expected to announce draft peace deal within 24 hours
June 15 surges to 50%30%
A source close to negotiations reported on May 23, 2026, that the US and Iran were expected to announce a finalized draft proposal of a peace deal by the next day. This raised market expectations for a near-term agreement, impacting prices positively.
President Trump announces peace deal with Iran largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump publicly announced that a peace deal to end the war with Iran had been largely negotiated, boosting market optimism significantly across multiple resolution dates.
President Trump announces near-finalized peace deal with Iran including reopening Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 70%16%
On May 23, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence in a forthcoming agreement.
President Trump claims peace deal with Iran largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 81%18%
On May 23, President Trump claimed that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated after calls with a Pakistani mediator and regional leaders, raising market optimism significantly for longer-dated outcomes.
Trump announces peace deal with Iran is 'largely negotiated'
December 31 surges to 88%26%
President Trump announced that a broader agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a massive surge in market optimism.
Trump says peace deal with Iran ‘largely negotiated’
December 31 surges to 88%23%
Trump posted on social media that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was “largely negotiated”. The optimism drove the market to its highest point (88 % on 24 May) for the “December 31” outcome.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
On May 23, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for peace, boosting market prices significantly for longer-term outcomes.
Pakistan delegation visits Tehran to facilitate US-Iran talks amid tensions
June 30 surges to 75%34%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials to arrange further US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Market optimism rises on reports of improved US-Iran diplomatic talks
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Reports indicated ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran were progressing despite setbacks, with some optimism expressed by analysts and officials. This led to a modest increase in market prices for longer-dated peace deal outcomes.
US-Iran talks planned in Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire efforts
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
US President Trump announced plans for US negotiators to head to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, maintaining diplomatic momentum despite military tensions, which supported market gains for longer-term peace outcomes.
New Iran peace proposal triggers tense Trump-Netanyahu call
June 30 jumps to 54%14%
A new peace effort aimed at securing tangible commitments from Iran on its nuclear program led to a tense call between Trump and Netanyahu, reflecting regional skepticism and complicating peace prospects.
Vice President Vance leads new U.S. delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
July 31 surges to 55%15%
Vance announced a new U.S. diplomatic push in Pakistan, signalling a possible fresh round of talks. The optimism lifted the “July 31” price from 40 % to 55 % by May 21.
U.S. forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
December 31 rises to 71%3%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming the blockade’s forceful enforcement. This renewed military pressure nudged the “December 31” price upward from 68 % to 71 % on May 21.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss Iran talks and regional security
December 31 rises to 69%1%
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met to discuss ongoing negotiations with Iran and regional security issues, emphasizing continued US pressure on Iran. This meeting underscored the complexity of the peace process and contributed to mixed market reactions.
Trump claims planned attack on Iran postponed after Tehran makes new proposal to end war
May 31 surges to 30%16%
President Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran following a new peace proposal from Tehran, which temporarily raised hopes for a peace deal and influenced market optimism.
Trump pauses planned military attack after Iran sends peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
President Trump announced he had paused a planned attack on Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
Trump pauses planned attack after Iran sends peace proposal, signals deal possible
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
On May 18, President Trump announced a pause in planned military action against Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
U.S. maintains naval blockade despite cease‑fire expiration
The United States announced the blockade would remain in force after the cease‑fire expired, confirming no imminent permanent settlement and pushing the market to its lowest point.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 22 dips to 6%1%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan to continue indirect talks, but President Trump canceled sending envoys due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This uncertainty contributed to low market confidence in a peace deal by May 22.
President Trump sends nuclear proposal to Iran urging swift progress
June 15 dips to 18%2%
On May 16, 2026, President Trump sent a nuclear proposal to Iran, warning that swift progress was necessary to avoid serious consequences, signaling a critical moment in negotiations and impacting market prices for mid-June outcomes.
Oil prices dip as markets anticipate possible US‑Iran agreement
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Falling oil prices reflected optimism that a deal might be near, briefly lifting the price for the December‑31 outcome.
US extends cease‑fire at Pakistan’s request while awaiting unified Iranian proposal
December 31 rises to 77%3%
The extension temporarily lifted odds for the December‑31 outcome, reflected in a price rise that day.
Trump says he is reviewing new Iranian proposal but skeptical of deal
May 15 dips to 0%1%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new Iranian peace proposal but expressed skepticism about its acceptability, indicating ongoing negotiation challenges. This contributed to a further decline in market optimism for a peace deal by May 15.
Iran’s economy suffers from soaring inflation amid blockade
Reports of hyper‑inflation and economic strain in Iran reduced optimism that Tehran would compromise, further lowering the market’s peace odds.
Trump meets Netanyahu, insists US talks with Iran continue
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and emphasized that US negotiations with Iran would continue despite challenges. This meeting underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts, supporting market optimism for a longer-term peace deal by year-end.
Iranian reformists detained amid crackdown during nuclear talks with US
June 30 dips to 34%4%
Iran's security forces arrested reformist figures amid nationwide protests and ongoing nuclear negotiations with the US, signaling internal political instability. This crackdown likely dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal due to increased domestic tensions in Iran.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 dips to 10%4%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran detains leading human‑rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh
May 15 drops to 0%7%
The crackdown on dissent signaled internal instability in Iran, further weakening expectations of a durable peace and pushing the May 15 price to zero.
Iran’s president calls for ‘fair and equitable’ negotiations amid US drone shootdown
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Iran’s president instructed the foreign minister to pursue fair negotiations with the US, signaling Tehran’s interest in diplomacy despite military tensions including a US shootdown of an Iranian drone. This nuanced stance maintained some market optimism for a peace deal by year-end.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran will not compromise on nuclear issue
June 30 plunges to 38%17%
Araghchi’s hard‑line statement reduced optimism for any near‑term agreement, further depressing the June‑30 odds.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed negotiations
May 31 drops to 24%7%
The foreign minister’s visit was seen as a concrete step toward a diplomatic resolution, briefly stabilizing market sentiment for the May 31 outcome before subsequent setbacks.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 dips to 28%3%
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, but no agreement was reached, leading to some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Trump says he will not send envoys to Pakistan for talks
Trump cancelled the planned envoy trip, signaling a retreat from diplomatic engagement and further depressing market expectations of a permanent deal.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone call instead
June 30 drops to 41%13%
US President Trump called off the planned envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market optimism for a near-term deal.
US Navy disables two more Iranian tankers, raising cease‑fire doubts
June 15 dips to 16%1%
Continued US interdictions further eroded confidence in a swift settlement, pulling down the June‑15 odds to their lowest level.
Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 71%7%
President Trump extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran but insisted on maintaining the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risks. This mixed message caused market fluctuations and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal by mid-2026.
US‑Iran ceasefire set to expire, no new deal announced
May 31 plunges to 8%28%
The imminent expiry of the ceasefire without a fresh agreement reinforced market pessimism, pushing prices down to their lowest levels for the May‑31 deadline.
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
December 31 drops to 70%8%
The brief opening of the strait raised optimism, but the sudden pause signaled uncertainty, causing a modest dip in Yes prices across all dates.
Iran detains reformist leaders amid post‑protest crackdown
May 22 dips to 4%3%
A crackdown on reformist figures after nationwide protests signaled internal instability in Tehran, reducing confidence that Iran could negotiate a durable peace. The “May 22” price fell from 7 % to 4 % on May 11‑12.
Trump calls Iran’s response to peace plan ‘totally unacceptable’ as ceasefire frays
May 31 rises to 12%1%
President Trump rejected Iran’s counterproposal to end the war, calling it totally unacceptable and highlighting ongoing divisions. This rejection caused market confidence to decline for near-term peace deal dates.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 10%2%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, negatively impacting market confidence in near-term peace deals.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on additional vessels
Further attacks on commercial shipping reinforced the perception that Iran would not relent without a definitive agreement, pushing odds lower.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The US awaited a serious offer from Iran to end the war.
Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear program, urges deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump publicly warned Iran not to rebuild its nuclear program and expressed belief that Iran wants a deal, reflecting ongoing US pressure and signaling potential for future agreement.
Rubio says Iran’s new Strait authority is “unacceptable”
June 30 jumps to 43%10%
Rubio publicly demanded that Iran cease operating a newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” heightening diplomatic pressure. The announcement coincided with a brief rally in the “June 30” market, lifting it from 33 % to 43 % on May 9‑10.
U.S. fires on and disables 2 Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 11%8%
U.S. forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanging fire with Iranian forces, casting more doubt on the ceasefire and raising market volatility.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 drops to 13%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, undermining the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The incident contributed to market declines for near-term resolution dates.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 5%10%
A direct military engagement by U.S. forces heightened tensions and signaled a possible escalation, causing the market to sharply downgrade the chances of any peace deal before May 15.
Iran announces a new 14‑point proposal via Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 12%19%
The proposal raised hopes for a deal but the lack of immediate acceptance kept the market bearish for the earliest deadline.
Pakistan mediators report progress toward a new U.S.–Iran agreement
June 30 surges to 54%20%
Positive statements from Pakistani officials lifted market sentiment, temporarily raising Yes prices for the later June 30 and December 31 horizons.
Trump says Iran has offered a “much better” proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a short‑term price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
Trump hosts Congo and Rwanda leaders for US-mediated peace deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump celebrated a US-mediated peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, showcasing his peacemaking efforts globally. While unrelated directly to US-Iran relations, this event briefly boosted Trump's image as a dealmaker, slightly supporting optimism for a US-Iran peace deal by December 31.
US and Iran close to one-page memorandum to end war, peace proposal under review
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum to end the war, with Iran reviewing the US peace proposal. This raised market optimism, reflected in price increases for longer-dated outcomes.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the cease‑fire was fragile, prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for a permanent peace.
U.S. Navy shoots down Iranian fast boats near the Strait
May 31 plunges to 19%25%
A direct military engagement further diminished hopes for a quick settlement, sharply reducing the May 31 and June 30 probabilities.
Trump says Iran has sent a ‘much better’ proposal via Pakistan
July 31 dips to 46%1%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s new proposal was “much better” revived optimism for a permanent deal, pushing the July‑31 odds higher.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s new proposal, reinforcing the perception that a permanent deal was unlikely and driving prices down.
Trump hints at “shoot and kill” policy against small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 7%8%
Escalatory rhetoric raised the prospect of renewed combat, pushing Yes prices lower for the near‑term May 15 deadline.
Trump reviews new Iranian proposal to end war but remains skeptical
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war but expressed doubt it would be acceptable, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges. This tempered market optimism for a permanent peace deal by mid-May and end of May.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that back‑channel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
A brief rally in Asian equities on reports that diplomats were working on a new round of talks gave a modest lift to market optimism, temporarily halting the price decline.
U.S. extends the naval blockade of Iranian ports for another week
May 22 dips to 4%3%
The extension signaled continued pressure on Tehran, reducing confidence that a deal would be signed before the May 22 deadline.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran negotiations
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Positive market sentiment from Asian equities reflected optimism about diplomatic talks, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 11%6%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 11%19%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall sharply.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue ceasefire talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission citing lack of progress, opting for phone negotiations instead. This uncertainty contributed to declining market confidence for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 12%5%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal.
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
June 30 drops to 34%10%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, which negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iran announces reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
After a brief reopening, Iran closed the strait again, creating volatility that pushed market odds down further.
Iran and US agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Iranian Foreign Minister announced nuclear talks with the US to be held in Oman, signaling a willingness to negotiate despite ongoing tensions. This development increased market confidence in a potential peace deal by the end of the year.
Iran submits new proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockade
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade and agrees to a long-term truce, deferring nuclear talks. The US found the offer better but unlikely to accept it without addressing nuclear issues, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran has sent a “much better” proposal but he remains unsatisfied
June 15 dips to 14%4%
The mixed signal kept the market uncertain, leading to a modest decline for the mid‑term outcomes.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled envoy mission
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan as US envoy mission was canceled by Trump due to lack of progress, signaling stalled direct talks and increasing uncertainty about a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran sends 'much better' proposal to U.S. after Trump cancels talks
Iran sent a 'much better' proposal to the U.S. shortly after Trump canceled the talks mission, providing a brief positive market signal.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan but US cancels envoy trip
June 15 dips to 18%2%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan amid efforts to reignite talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This development lowered market confidence in a near-term peace deal, reflected in price drops for May 31 and June 15 outcomes.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan, suggests phone talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
President Trump called off the planned US envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, but indicated willingness to talk by phone, reflecting stalled direct negotiations and causing mixed market reactions.
Trump says Iran has offered a ‘much better’ peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
President Trump publicly noted that Iran had submitted a more favorable proposal, raising hopes for a settlement and pushing the market’s probability for a December‑31 deal higher.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal as unsatisfactory
The president’s dismissal of a new Iranian proposal reduced expectations of a deal, causing another price decline.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan amid ongoing mediation efforts, but President Trump indicated that future talks could occur by phone rather than in-person, reflecting stalled diplomacy and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal soon.
Trump says US envoys will not travel to Islamabad for Iran talks
Trump’s decision to cancel the planned envoy trip signaled a further stall in negotiations, prompting another price decline.
Diplomats work through back‑channels to arrange a new US‑Iran round of talks
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Back‑channel efforts signaled possible progress, modestly improving odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes after a period of decline.
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan before heading to Moscow
June 15 dips to 14%3%
The brief return created confusion about the status of negotiations, further dampening market optimism for a quick deal.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 dips to 31%4%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue negotiations, but President Trump canceled the planned envoy visit due to lack of progress, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iran’s foreign minister says Iran sent a “much better” proposal
Iranian officials reported sending a revised 14‑point proposal to the United States, raising hopes for a deal but ultimately failing to move the market upward.
Trump cancels planned US delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 33%36%
The cancellation removed a key diplomatic channel, causing the market to price in a longer timeline for any agreement.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 15 drops to 0%10%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone calls instead
December 31 drops to 70%8%
President Trump called off the planned trip of US envoys to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone negotiations
June 30 dips to 50%3%
President Trump called off the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for direct talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone discussions instead. This indicated stalled negotiations and increased uncertainty about a peace deal, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term outcomes.
Trump cancels Iran talks delegation to Pakistan
June 15 surges to 35%15%
Trump canceled the mission to send envoys to Pakistan after a lack of progress with Iran, suggesting the sides could talk by phone instead, which caused market uncertainty.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 12%7%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling a setback in negotiations and increasing uncertainty about reaching a permanent peace deal soon.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 31 drops to 12%6%
President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market optimism, causing a decline in prices for near-term peace deal outcomes like May 31 and June 15.
Iran’s top diplomat leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 31 drops to 12%7%
Iran’s foreign minister left Pakistan abruptly, and President Trump announced he had told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for further talks, signaling a breakdown in scheduled negotiations and reducing near-term optimism for a permanent peace deal.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan due to lack of progress, suggesting talks could continue by phone, which dampened near-term market confidence in a peace deal but left longer-term hopes intact.
Iran’s foreign minister shares Iran’s position on permanent peace framework in Pakistan
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani officials to discuss Iran’s red lines for negotiations and shared Iran’s position on a workable framework to permanently end the war, signaling ongoing but cautious diplomacy that maintained market uncertainty.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump says talks can be by phone
Araghchi’s brief return and Trump’s refusal to send envoys signaled stalled diplomacy, pulling Yes prices down.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid ongoing blockade and threats
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Following the US blockade and Iran's threats, diplomats sought to organize another round of talks, with Pakistan playing a key role. Despite the fragile ceasefire, the market showed cautious optimism for a longer-term peace deal but remained skeptical about near-term resolution.
Iran’s foreign minister leaves Pakistan amid stalled US-Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 46%20%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed Islamabad after talks failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with Iran expressing skepticism about US seriousness, leading to market declines in near-term deal probabilities.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened hopes for a near-term peace deal and led to a decline in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
Trump extends ceasefire with Iran indefinitely amid ongoing talks
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a temporary halt in fighting but no permanent peace deal. This maintained some market optimism but underscored unresolved major issues.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 drops to 38%12%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability and reduced market optimism for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 38%23%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and highlighting Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened near-term optimism for a peace deal, reflected in falling market prices for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and extend the ceasefire. Reports of an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire raised hopes for diplomacy, temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction
US President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Iranian threats and US blockade strain ceasefire in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 dips to 28%2%
US forces disabled two Iranian tankers amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran formalizing control over the waterway, increasing doubts about the ceasefire's durability and peace prospects.
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
President Trump announced a hard‑line military directive to target Iranian vessels, signaling escalation and driving the market sharply lower.
Trump orders U.S. forces to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trump’s aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
Iran fires on ships in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 32%6%
Iranian forces fired on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and undermining ceasefire stability. This increased doubts about a permanent peace deal by May 31 and June 30.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 13%9%
The US naval action further escalated the standoff, pushing market sentiment toward a ‘No’ outcome for all dates, especially the near‑term May‑31 option.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 15 dips to 18%2%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran but insisted on maintaining the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, signaling continued economic pressure and unresolved conflict. This mixed message kept market confidence low for a permanent peace deal by June 15 and June 30.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 34%22%
The direct engagement signaled a possible escalation, sharply reducing the probability of a near‑term peace deal.
US extends ceasefire with Iran amid ongoing negotiations
December 31 rises to 78%4%
President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire agreed with Iran, signaling willingness to continue diplomacy despite ongoing military and economic tensions. This extension provided some market support for a potential peace deal.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to push for more US-Iran talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires. This diplomatic effort briefly raised hopes for a deal, reflected in a temporary price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress briefly raised market optimism for a peace deal extension.
Ceasefire between US and Iran expires amid stalled talks
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
The expiration of the ceasefire without a new agreement heightened tensions and uncertainty. Both sides remained divided on key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to market declines for near-term peace deal probabilities.
Pakistani mediators work to arrange new US-Iran ceasefire talks as tensions rise
Pakistan continued efforts to mediate between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal amid ongoing military tensions and economic sanctions. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for a longer-term peace agreement.
Diplomats attempt back‑channel talks amid US blockade
Back‑channel efforts were reported but no concrete progress was announced, keeping market expectations low for any near‑term permanent agreement.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely while keeping the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risk and unresolved issues. This mixed message affected market confidence, especially for near-term peace deal dates.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire and negotiate peace
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy. This development raised hopes for a peace deal, reflected in modest market optimism for longer-term resolution dates.
Sen. Graham backs naval blockade as pressure on Iran
July 31 plunges to 39%16%
Graham’s public support for maintaining the naval blockade signaled a tougher U.S. stance, which corresponded with a modest decline in the “July 31” odds (from ~55 % to 39 % by early June).
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely amid ongoing talks
July 31 drops to 39%11%
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, citing a fractured Iranian government and the need for Iran to submit a unified peace proposal. This extension maintained diplomatic momentum but underscored the fragility of the ceasefire, influencing market prices downward for nearer-term deals.
Trump extends US‑Iran cease‑fire indefinitely, maintains blockade
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the April 7 two‑week cease‑fire while keeping the U.S. naval blockade in place. The announcement was interpreted as a willingness to keep diplomatic channels open, pushing the market’s “December 31” odds up from the low‑50s to the mid‑70s percent range.
U.S. and Iran resume indirect talks in Pakistan after blockade
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Back‑channel negotiations were reported to be underway, offering a glimmer of diplomatic progress that temporarily boosted the market’s outlook for a deal by the end of the year.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct talks in decades brokered by US
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Lebanon and Israel conducted historic direct diplomatic talks in Washington, facilitated by the US, signaling regional diplomatic progress. However, Hezbollah opposed the talks, and the conflict with Iran-backed groups continued, limiting immediate impact on US-Iran peace prospects.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits peace proposal
June 30 surges to 70%20%
On April 21, 2026, President Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling continued diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market confidence for a peace deal by later dates.
President Trump extends the US‑Iran ceasefire indefinitely
June 15 rises to 21%1%
The extension offered a brief reprieve but did not resolve core issues, causing only a modest rebound in market confidence for later deadlines.
President Trump extends US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely pending proposal submission
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely, citing a fractured Iranian government and awaiting a unified Iranian proposal to end the war, which maintained market cautiousness.
US President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
June 15 dips to 17%3%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal lowered expectations for any imminent agreement, causing a sharp drop in the June‑15 and June‑30 odds.
Pakistan mediates between US and Iran amid talks to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 66%25%
Pakistani officials engaged with Iranian and US representatives to bridge differences and extend the ceasefire, signaling some diplomatic progress and temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump announces indefinite extension of Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire
June 30 plunges to 41%32%
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the cease‑fire while maintaining the blockade, signaling no imminent settlement. The mixed message caused the “June 30” price to wobble around the low‑40 % range, down from the high‑70 % peak a week earlier.
Trump extends cease‑fire but maintains blockade
Trump’s announcement of an indefinite cease‑fire extension offered a brief optimism boost, nudging Yes prices upward.
U.S. extends the cease‑fire for another week
The White House announced an extension of the fragile cease‑fire, temporarily easing market concerns and causing a modest rebound in prices.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely pending negotiations
On April 21, 2026, President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire while maintaining the US naval blockade, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but also mixed messages about conflict risks, causing market fluctuations.
President Trump unilaterally extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the two-week ceasefire to allow both sides to continue peace talks, which significantly boosted long-term peace expectations.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending Iran proposal
December 31 surges to 72%18%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to allow Tehran more time to submit a unified peace proposal, while maintaining a naval blockade. This extension provided some market support for a potential peace deal but highlighted ongoing tensions and unresolved issues.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 19%11%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation. This military escalation cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire and the prospects for imminent peace talks, negatively impacting market confidence for near-term deals.
U.S. Navy seizes an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 47%3%
The seizure underscored the risk of direct conflict, further eroding confidence in a swift diplomatic resolution.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. This heightened tensions and lowered short-term peace deal probabilities.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait
The first seizure since the blockade signaled a direct confrontation, further eroding market confidence in a swift peace settlement.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 30%14%
U.S. forces seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, the first interception since the blockade began. The aggressive action deepened doubts about the cease‑fire’s durability, causing a sharp drop in the “May 31” price from 44 % to 30 % on April 20.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 53%1%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, provoking Iran's vow of swift response. This incident increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace negotiations.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 26 drops to 10%9%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This incident increased market uncertainty and lowered confidence in a peace deal by May 31 and May 26.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 54%11%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz again and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions with the US naval blockade. This heightened conflict risk and economic disruption, reducing market optimism for a quick permanent peace deal.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
May 31 drops to 20%10%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and caused a drop in market confidence for a near-term peace deal, with prices falling notably for the June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and threatening global energy supplies. This action challenged the fragile ceasefire and reduced market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
The IRGC announced a full closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, dramatically raising the risk of continued conflict and lowering market confidence in a permanent peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s closure of the strategic waterway heightened the risk of renewed hostilities, causing a sharp decline in Yes probabilities for all dates.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after US blockade
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass in retaliation to the US naval blockade, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 15 drops to 12%6%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and began firing on vessels, reversing a brief reopening. This escalation pushed the “June 15” market down to single‑digit levels as traders saw the war‑ending outlook receding.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and opened fire on vessels, intensifying the strategic standoff and pushing market odds down sharply.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting passage, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
June 30 drops to 34%7%
The closure heightened the strategic stakes and suggested Iran would not concede without significant pressure, pushing down prices for all outcomes.
Historic face-to-face US-Iran talks in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
A 21-hour direct negotiation between US and Iranian delegations in Pakistan failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with nuclear program disputes cited as a key sticking point. This maintained uncertainty and limited near-term deal prospects.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad, suggesting a possible restart of negotiations, which lifted the market slightly before the cease‑fire deadline.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Abbas Araghchi’s brief visit raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, temporarily lifting odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes.
Diplomats work through back channels to arrange a new US‑Iran round of talks
May 31 drops to 31%13%
Back‑channel efforts raised hopes for renewed negotiations, temporarily boosting the market’s optimism for a near‑term deal.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and reported an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, boosting hopes for diplomacy.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to set up new U.S.–Iran talks
July 31 jumps to 45%7%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Islamabad to arrange a second round of U.S.–Iran talks before the cease‑fire expired. The news lifted hopes for a quick settlement, pushing the “July 31” price up from the low‑40s to the mid‑50s.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
June 30 dips to 54%3%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move raised hopes for progress, temporarily supporting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks showing progress toward ceasefire extension
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress raised market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistan emerges as key mediator in US-Iran talks to extend ceasefire
May 31 surges to 55%25%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy, briefly boosting market confidence in a peace deal by May 31.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 54%13%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for further diplomacy despite ongoing tensions and the US blockade. This improved market sentiment for longer-term peace outcomes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Iran’s aggressive action heightened tensions and reduced market confidence that a permanent peace could be achieved before the cease‑fire expires, further depressing the May‑31 and June‑15 odds.
US announces military blockade of all Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade on all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a peace deal, causing market uncertainty about a permanent agreement by June 30.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the US would maintain pressure on Iran, reducing optimism for a swift permanent settlement.
US enacts naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
The US announced a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This blockade was part of an effort to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal, but Iran threatened retaliation, increasing market uncertainty.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports after failed Pakistan talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Following unsuccessful ceasefire talks in Pakistan, US President Donald Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into accepting a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation increased tensions and reduced near-term peace deal probabilities.
President Trump announces a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports
May 22 dips to 4%3%
Trump declared the U.S. would maintain a blockade until Tehran agrees to a deal, signaling a hard‑line stance and lowering expectations for a quick peace agreement.
US imposes military blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 drops to 59%7%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
Diplomats work to arrange a new round of U.S.–Iran talks
Back‑channel efforts by Pakistani officials and the UN to restart negotiations signaled possible progress, temporarily boosting confidence in a peace outcome.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
June 30 surges to 71%30%
On April 14, diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule new talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur in Islamabad soon, raising hopes and causing a rally in related markets.
Pakistan pushes for new US-Iran talks amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%30%
Pakistan's diplomatic efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations raised hopes for a peace deal, temporarily boosting market confidence for later resolution dates. The talks aimed to bridge differences after the initial round failed to end the conflict.
Historic face-to-face talks between US and Iran in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 surges to 70%29%
The first round of direct talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan lasted 21 hours but ended without an agreement, highlighting the difficulty of reaching a permanent peace deal. This event initially raised hopes but ultimately led to market uncertainty.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule a new round of talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur within two days in Islamabad, signaling potential progress and raising market optimism for a peace deal.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a deal, following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 82%41%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange further US-Iran talks before the ceasefire expiration. Reports indicated an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for diplomacy but without a permanent deal yet.
Trump declares full U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
President Trump announced a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to threaten retaliation and close the Strait of Hormuz. The heightened military stance drove the market’s early upward swing for the “December 31” and “July 31” outcomes as traders priced in increased pressure for a peace deal before the cease‑fire deadline.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports following failed Islamabad talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
U.S. announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a comprehensive blockade of Iran’s ports, signaling a hardening U.S. stance and prompting traders to downgrade the likelihood of any near‑term peace agreement.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
The seizure signaled a hardening US stance, undermining confidence that a permanent deal could be reached soon and pushing down odds for all outcomes, especially the near‑term May‑31 date.
President Trump announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Trump declared a comprehensive blockade aimed at pressuring Iran to negotiate a permanent peace, raising market optimism that a deal might be forced and pushing Yes prices higher across all horizons.
US President Trump announces military blockade of all Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Trump declared a US naval blockade on all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the war. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting market optimism for near-term peace.
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
Trump imposes U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 76%32%
President Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports as part of efforts to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports after failed Islamabad talks
June 30 drops to 50%13%
Following the failed Islamabad talks, President Trump announced a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, complicating ceasefire terms and raising tensions, which led to market uncertainty and a drop in peace deal odds for earlier dates.
US Navy begins naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 30%25%
The US military initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13
June 30 dips to 51%4%
Following failed talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a permanent peace deal by June 30.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
The US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move followed failed initial talks in Pakistan and was intended to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks, Trump opts for phone call
Iran’s top diplomat briefly visited Islamabad while Trump said the sides could discuss the deal by phone, underscoring stalled face‑to‑face negotiations and further depressing market sentiment.
U.S. Vice President Vance holds talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad
July 31 surges to 50%17%
U.S. Vice President Vance met Iranian officials in Islamabad. The talks ended without a deal, but the very fact of high‑level contact caused a modest rise in the “July 31” odds from 33 % to 50 % over the next two weeks.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials meet in Islamabad for peace talks
December 31 drops to 63%6%
Diplomatic talks between US and Iranian officials in Islamabad signaled efforts to negotiate a peace deal, but no agreement was reached, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
On April 11, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
First direct diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel in Washington
The first direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the United States, signaled a possible regional de‑escalation, briefly lifting market pessimism and nudging prices up.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 26%18%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, temporarily halting hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was explicitly temporary and did not qualify as a permanent peace agreement, limiting price increases.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
December 31 surges to 69%15%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. This ceasefire was a critical step in halting immediate conflict and initiating diplomatic talks.
US and Iran announce ceasefire amid ongoing conflict
On April 8, 2026, a ceasefire was announced between the US and Iran, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was temporary and did not constitute a permanent agreement, limiting price increases.
Pakistan brokers two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire
December 31 surges to 70%15%
A Pakistani‑mediated two‑week cease‑fire was announced, temporarily halting hostilities. Although a short‑term pause, the news lifted market sentiment and the “December 31” price rose sharply from around 55 % to the low‑70 % range within a few days.
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