Incumbent Olivia Chow holds a dominant position in the October 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election, with traders assigning her an 88.5% implied probability of victory. Her recent pledge to limit property tax increases to near the rate of inflation addresses voter concerns over affordability following larger hikes earlier in her term. Main challenger Brad Bradford, a sitting councillor, has narrowed gaps in some mid-year polls but trails significantly in current market pricing. Other registered candidates, including Chris Alexander, register minimal support. Upcoming debates and the city's fiscal trajectory continue to shape positioning ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOlivia Chow 89%
Brad Bradford 12%
John Tory <1%
Marco Mendicino <1%
$146,881 Vol.
$146,881 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Olivia Chow
89%
Brad Bradford
12%
John Tory
1%
Marco Mendicino
1%
Anthony Furey
<1%
Kevin Clarke
<1%
Ana Bailão
<1%
Michael Ford
<1%
Olivia Chow 89%
Brad Bradford 12%
John Tory <1%
Marco Mendicino <1%
$146,881 Vol.
$146,881 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Olivia Chow
$38,884 Vol.
89%
Brad Bradford
$38,293 Vol.
12%
John Tory
$12,404 Vol.
1%
Marco Mendicino
$16,081 Vol.
1%
Anthony Furey
$8,806 Vol.
<1%
Kevin Clarke
$9,144 Vol.
<1%
Ana Bailão
$11,321 Vol.
<1%
Michael Ford
$11,948 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Incumbent Olivia Chow holds a dominant position in the October 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election, with traders assigning her an 88.5% implied probability of victory. Her recent pledge to limit property tax increases to near the rate of inflation addresses voter concerns over affordability following larger hikes earlier in her term. Main challenger Brad Bradford, a sitting councillor, has narrowed gaps in some mid-year polls but trails significantly in current market pricing. Other registered candidates, including Chris Alexander, register minimal support. Upcoming debates and the city's fiscal trajectory continue to shape positioning ahead of the vote.
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$146,881End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Incumbent Olivia Chow holds a dominant position in the October 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election, with traders assigning her an 88.5% implied probability of victory. Her recent pledge to limit property tax increases to near the rate of inflation addresses voter concerns over affordability following larger hikes earlier in her term. Main challenger Brad Bradford, a sitting councillor, has narrowed gaps in some mid-year polls but trails significantly in current market pricing. Other registered candidates, including Chris Alexander, register minimal support. Upcoming debates and the city's fiscal trajectory continue to shape positioning ahead of the vote.
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$146,881End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Olivia Chow holds a dominant position in the October 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election, with traders assigning her an 88.5% implied probability of victory. Her recent pledge to limit property tax increases to near the rate of inflation addresses voter concerns over affordability following larger hikes earlier in her term. Main challenger Brad Bradford, a sitting councillor, has narrowed gaps in some mid-year polls but trails significantly in current market pricing. Other registered candidates, including Chris Alexander, register minimal support. Upcoming debates and the city's fiscal trajectory continue to shape positioning ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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