OpenAI's 72% implied probability of leading OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 reflects trader confidence in its GPT-5.6 Luna model's consistent high-volume usage across developer workloads, even as open-weight alternatives gain ground. DeepSeek's 9% odds capture its established edge in cost-efficient Flash variants that have driven broader Chinese lab momentum, including Tencent and Z.ai models frequently topping daily token rankings. Low single-digit probabilities for Anthropic, Google, xAI, and others align with their smaller shares amid competition from cheaper, high-performing open models like those from Xiaomi and MiniMax. Key near-term factors include any last-minute shifts in routing patterns before resolution, with the market viewing OpenAI's established ecosystem and recent capability updates as decisive for that specific seven-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 73%
DeepSeek 11%
Qwen <1%
xAI <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
OpenAI
73%
DeepSeek
11%
Qwen
1%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meta
<1%
OpenAI 73%
DeepSeek 11%
Qwen <1%
xAI <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
OpenAI
$1,791 Vol.
73%
DeepSeek
$821 Vol.
11%
Qwen
$277 Vol.
1%
xAI
$267 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,195 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$967 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$289 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$280 Vol.
<1%
$320 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$303 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$277 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.OpenAI's 72% implied probability of leading OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 reflects trader confidence in its GPT-5.6 Luna model's consistent high-volume usage across developer workloads, even as open-weight alternatives gain ground. DeepSeek's 9% odds capture its established edge in cost-efficient Flash variants that have driven broader Chinese lab momentum, including Tencent and Z.ai models frequently topping daily token rankings. Low single-digit probabilities for Anthropic, Google, xAI, and others align with their smaller shares amid competition from cheaper, high-performing open models like those from Xiaomi and MiniMax. Key near-term factors include any last-minute shifts in routing patterns before resolution, with the market viewing OpenAI's established ecosystem and recent capability updates as decisive for that specific seven-day window.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,008End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.OpenAI's 72% implied probability of leading OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 reflects trader confidence in its GPT-5.6 Luna model's consistent high-volume usage across developer workloads, even as open-weight alternatives gain ground. DeepSeek's 9% odds capture its established edge in cost-efficient Flash variants that have driven broader Chinese lab momentum, including Tencent and Z.ai models frequently topping daily token rankings. Low single-digit probabilities for Anthropic, Google, xAI, and others align with their smaller shares amid competition from cheaper, high-performing open models like those from Xiaomi and MiniMax. Key near-term factors include any last-minute shifts in routing patterns before resolution, with the market viewing OpenAI's established ecosystem and recent capability updates as decisive for that specific seven-day window.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Volume
$7,008End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's 72% implied probability of leading OpenRouter token share for the week of September 7 reflects trader confidence in its GPT-5.6 Luna model's consistent high-volume usage across developer workloads, even as open-weight alternatives gain ground. DeepSeek's 9% odds capture its established edge in cost-efficient Flash variants that have driven broader Chinese lab momentum, including Tencent and Z.ai models frequently topping daily token rankings. Low single-digit probabilities for Anthropic, Google, xAI, and others align with their smaller shares amid competition from cheaper, high-performing open models like those from Xiaomi and MiniMax. Key near-term factors include any last-minute shifts in routing patterns before resolution, with the market viewing OpenAI's established ecosystem and recent capability updates as decisive for that specific seven-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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