Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power and strong fan anticipation after weaker recent Marvel releases, has propelled it past $550 million domestically by early August. A solid second weekend of roughly $143 million brought the cume to about $653 million, even with a steep drop, underscoring sustained audience interest and premium-format dominance. With three weeks remaining until the August 31 cutoff and competition from The Odyssey, traders see the film’s legs as the key swing factor determining whether it finishes comfortably under or just above $900–920 million. Strong word-of-mouth and historical Spider-Man holdover patterns support the current market-implied odds clustering in the sub-$920 million range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 53%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 20%
920 - 940m 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
53%
900 - 920m
43%
920 - 940m
12%
940 - 960m
5%
960 - 980m
19%
980 - 1000m
7%
1000 - 1020m
17%
1020 - 1040m
20%
1040 - 1060m
15%
1060 - 1080m
10%
1080m+
8%
<900m 53%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 20%
920 - 940m 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$165 Vol.
53%
900 - 920m
$65 Vol.
43%
920 - 940m
$304 Vol.
12%
940 - 960m
$794 Vol.
5%
960 - 980m
$45 Vol.
19%
980 - 1000m
$372 Vol.
7%
1000 - 1020m
$86 Vol.
17%
1020 - 1040m
$30 Vol.
20%
1040 - 1060m
$45 Vol.
15%
1060 - 1080m
$57 Vol.
10%
1080m+
$51 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power and strong fan anticipation after weaker recent Marvel releases, has propelled it past $550 million domestically by early August. A solid second weekend of roughly $143 million brought the cume to about $653 million, even with a steep drop, underscoring sustained audience interest and premium-format dominance. With three weeks remaining until the August 31 cutoff and competition from The Odyssey, traders see the film’s legs as the key swing factor determining whether it finishes comfortably under or just above $900–920 million. Strong word-of-mouth and historical Spider-Man holdover patterns support the current market-implied odds clustering in the sub-$920 million range.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,014End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power and strong fan anticipation after weaker recent Marvel releases, has propelled it past $550 million domestically by early August. A solid second weekend of roughly $143 million brought the cume to about $653 million, even with a steep drop, underscoring sustained audience interest and premium-format dominance. With three weeks remaining until the August 31 cutoff and competition from The Odyssey, traders see the film’s legs as the key swing factor determining whether it finishes comfortably under or just above $900–920 million. Strong word-of-mouth and historical Spider-Man holdover patterns support the current market-implied odds clustering in the sub-$920 million range.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,014End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power and strong fan anticipation after weaker recent Marvel releases, has propelled it past $550 million domestically by early August. A solid second weekend of roughly $143 million brought the cume to about $653 million, even with a steep drop, underscoring sustained audience interest and premium-format dominance. With three weeks remaining until the August 31 cutoff and competition from The Odyssey, traders see the film’s legs as the key swing factor determining whether it finishes comfortably under or just above $900–920 million. Strong word-of-mouth and historical Spider-Man holdover patterns support the current market-implied odds clustering in the sub-$920 million range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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