Wild Horse Nine leads the market at 39.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar, buoyed by Martin McDonagh's proven awards pedigree and the film's high-profile cast including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich. With the Venice premiere still weeks away and most 2026 releases yet to screen, trader sentiment reflects broad uncertainty across dozens of contenders, many trading near even odds or lower single digits. Key differentiating factors include established screenwriting talent, early critical anticipation, and historical guild voting patterns that favor original scripts with distinctive voices over late-year releases. Upcoming festival debuts and precursor nominations will likely sharpen the field before guild and Academy ballots lock in February.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Wild Horse Nine 40%
Digger 9%
Fjord 8%
The Drama 6%
NEW
NEW
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
40%
Digger
9%
Fjord
8%
The Drama
6%
Josephine
6%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
5%
The Invite
5%
Obsession
5%
A Place in Hell
4%
The Odyssey
3%
Club Kid
3%
Elsinore
3%
Fatherland
2%
The Debut
2%
Forgotten Island
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
2%
The Black Ball
2%
Wild Horse Nine 40%
Digger 9%
Fjord 8%
The Drama 6%
NEW
NEW
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
$640 Vol.
40%
Digger
$259 Vol.
9%
Fjord
$43 Vol.
8%
The Drama
$36 Vol.
6%
Josephine
$56 Vol.
6%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
$56 Vol.
5%
The Invite
$36 Vol.
5%
Obsession
$36 Vol.
5%
A Place in Hell
$56 Vol.
4%
The Odyssey
$56 Vol.
3%
Club Kid
$36 Vol.
3%
Elsinore
$36 Vol.
3%
Fatherland
$36 Vol.
2%
The Debut
$44 Vol.
2%
Forgotten Island
$36 Vol.
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$44 Vol.
2%
The Black Ball
$36 Vol.
2%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wild Horse Nine leads the market at 39.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar, buoyed by Martin McDonagh's proven awards pedigree and the film's high-profile cast including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich. With the Venice premiere still weeks away and most 2026 releases yet to screen, trader sentiment reflects broad uncertainty across dozens of contenders, many trading near even odds or lower single digits. Key differentiating factors include established screenwriting talent, early critical anticipation, and historical guild voting patterns that favor original scripts with distinctive voices over late-year releases. Upcoming festival debuts and precursor nominations will likely sharpen the field before guild and Academy ballots lock in February.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$1,536End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wild Horse Nine leads the market at 39.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar, buoyed by Martin McDonagh's proven awards pedigree and the film's high-profile cast including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich. With the Venice premiere still weeks away and most 2026 releases yet to screen, trader sentiment reflects broad uncertainty across dozens of contenders, many trading near even odds or lower single digits. Key differentiating factors include established screenwriting talent, early critical anticipation, and historical guild voting patterns that favor original scripts with distinctive voices over late-year releases. Upcoming festival debuts and precursor nominations will likely sharpen the field before guild and Academy ballots lock in February.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,536End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wild Horse Nine leads the market at 39.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar, buoyed by Martin McDonagh's proven awards pedigree and the film's high-profile cast including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich. With the Venice premiere still weeks away and most 2026 releases yet to screen, trader sentiment reflects broad uncertainty across dozens of contenders, many trading near even odds or lower single digits. Key differentiating factors include established screenwriting talent, early critical anticipation, and historical guild voting patterns that favor original scripts with distinctive voices over late-year releases. Upcoming festival debuts and precursor nominations will likely sharpen the field before guild and Academy ballots lock in February.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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