Record preview grosses of $72–74.5 million for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, eclipsing *Avengers: Endgame*’s prior benchmark, have anchored trader expectations for a domestic opening day in the low-to-mid $170 million range. Strong presales, a 91% critics score, and minimal superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise reinforce the 65% implied probability on the 172–177 million bucket, while tighter spreads on adjacent tiers reflect ongoing debate over exact Friday performance after the extended Thursday window. Analysts note the film’s global tracking above $250 million domestically for the full weekend could lift the first-day tally further if walk-up business exceeds studio estimates, with final resolution hinging on today’s reported figures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
167-172m 65%
162-167m 55%
172-177m 51%
182m+ 20%
$110 Vol.
$110 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
3%
152-157m
-
157-162m
3%
162-167m
55%
167-172m
65%
172-177m
51%
177-182m
11%
182m+
20%
167-172m 65%
162-167m 55%
172-177m 51%
182m+ 20%
$110 Vol.
$110 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
$10 Vol.
3%
152-157m
$0 Vol.
-
157-162m
$0 Vol.
3%
162-167m
$100 Vol.
55%
167-172m
$0 Vol.
65%
172-177m
$0 Vol.
51%
177-182m
$0 Vol.
11%
182m+
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record preview grosses of $72–74.5 million for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, eclipsing *Avengers: Endgame*’s prior benchmark, have anchored trader expectations for a domestic opening day in the low-to-mid $170 million range. Strong presales, a 91% critics score, and minimal superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise reinforce the 65% implied probability on the 172–177 million bucket, while tighter spreads on adjacent tiers reflect ongoing debate over exact Friday performance after the extended Thursday window. Analysts note the film’s global tracking above $250 million domestically for the full weekend could lift the first-day tally further if walk-up business exceeds studio estimates, with final resolution hinging on today’s reported figures.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ET
Volume
$110End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record preview grosses of $72–74.5 million for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, eclipsing *Avengers: Endgame*’s prior benchmark, have anchored trader expectations for a domestic opening day in the low-to-mid $170 million range. Strong presales, a 91% critics score, and minimal superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise reinforce the 65% implied probability on the 172–177 million bucket, while tighter spreads on adjacent tiers reflect ongoing debate over exact Friday performance after the extended Thursday window. Analysts note the film’s global tracking above $250 million domestically for the full weekend could lift the first-day tally further if walk-up business exceeds studio estimates, with final resolution hinging on today’s reported figures.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$110End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Record preview grosses of $72–74.5 million for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, eclipsing *Avengers: Endgame*’s prior benchmark, have anchored trader expectations for a domestic opening day in the low-to-mid $170 million range. Strong presales, a 91% critics score, and minimal superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise reinforce the 65% implied probability on the 172–177 million bucket, while tighter spreads on adjacent tiers reflect ongoing debate over exact Friday performance after the extended Thursday window. Analysts note the film’s global tracking above $250 million domestically for the full weekend could lift the first-day tally further if walk-up business exceeds studio estimates, with final resolution hinging on today’s reported figures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions