The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara upheld birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the executive order, with Chief Justice Roberts authoring the majority opinion joined by five justices. The deadline for a rehearing petition passed on July 27 without any filing appearing on the docket, consistent with the Court’s longstanding practice of granting such petitions only in the rarest circumstances—none since 1965. Securing five votes would require support from at least one justice in the majority, an outcome made improbable by the decision’s firm grounding in precedent and statutory text. Trader consensus at 96.2% for “No” reflects these procedural and institutional barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as an unexpected petition accompanied by new evidence or a shift in Court composition, remain theoretically possible but face steep procedural hurdles before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara upheld birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the executive order, with Chief Justice Roberts authoring the majority opinion joined by five justices. The deadline for a rehearing petition passed on July 27 without any filing appearing on the docket, consistent with the Court’s longstanding practice of granting such petitions only in the rarest circumstances—none since 1965. Securing five votes would require support from at least one justice in the majority, an outcome made improbable by the decision’s firm grounding in precedent and statutory text. Trader consensus at 96.2% for “No” reflects these procedural and institutional barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as an unexpected petition accompanied by new evidence or a shift in Court composition, remain theoretically possible but face steep procedural hurdles before December 31.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,762End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara upheld birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the executive order, with Chief Justice Roberts authoring the majority opinion joined by five justices. The deadline for a rehearing petition passed on July 27 without any filing appearing on the docket, consistent with the Court’s longstanding practice of granting such petitions only in the rarest circumstances—none since 1965. Securing five votes would require support from at least one justice in the majority, an outcome made improbable by the decision’s firm grounding in precedent and statutory text. Trader consensus at 96.2% for “No” reflects these procedural and institutional barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as an unexpected petition accompanied by new evidence or a shift in Court composition, remain theoretically possible but face steep procedural hurdles before December 31.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,762End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara upheld birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the executive order, with Chief Justice Roberts authoring the majority opinion joined by five justices. The deadline for a rehearing petition passed on July 27 without any filing appearing on the docket, consistent with the Court’s longstanding practice of granting such petitions only in the rarest circumstances—none since 1965. Securing five votes would require support from at least one justice in the majority, an outcome made improbable by the decision’s firm grounding in precedent and statutory text. Trader consensus at 96.2% for “No” reflects these procedural and institutional barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as an unexpected petition accompanied by new evidence or a shift in Court composition, remain theoretically possible but face steep procedural hurdles before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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