**Tyler Robinson faces charges of aggravated murder and related felonies for the September 2025 fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.** Prosecutors presented DNA evidence linking him to the rifle, video of his movements, text messages, and statements described as confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing, prompting descriptions of the case as “overwhelming” and “straightforward” for a bindover decision. Robinson turned himself in the day after the shooting and has not yet entered a plea. Defense filings in mid-August 2026 argue the death penalty should be removed because the shot hit only the intended target without endangering others, while disputing political motive claims. A Utah judge has kept the capital option available and scheduled further proceedings, with traders viewing conviction as probable but not assured given the pre-trial stage, potential plea negotiations, and remaining legal challenges. The 59% implied probability for conviction reflects this evidence strength tempered by the absence of a completed trial or verdict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated59% chance
$290,134 Vol.
$290,134 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
59% chance
$290,134 Vol.
$290,134 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.**Tyler Robinson faces charges of aggravated murder and related felonies for the September 2025 fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.** Prosecutors presented DNA evidence linking him to the rifle, video of his movements, text messages, and statements described as confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing, prompting descriptions of the case as “overwhelming” and “straightforward” for a bindover decision. Robinson turned himself in the day after the shooting and has not yet entered a plea.
Defense filings in mid-August 2026 argue the death penalty should be removed because the shot hit only the intended target without endangering others, while disputing political motive claims. A Utah judge has kept the capital option available and scheduled further proceedings, with traders viewing conviction as probable but not assured given the pre-trial stage, potential plea negotiations, and remaining legal challenges. The 59% implied probability for conviction reflects this evidence strength tempered by the absence of a completed trial or verdict.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Volume
$290,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.**Tyler Robinson faces charges of aggravated murder and related felonies for the September 2025 fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.** Prosecutors presented DNA evidence linking him to the rifle, video of his movements, text messages, and statements described as confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing, prompting descriptions of the case as “overwhelming” and “straightforward” for a bindover decision. Robinson turned himself in the day after the shooting and has not yet entered a plea.
Defense filings in mid-August 2026 argue the death penalty should be removed because the shot hit only the intended target without endangering others, while disputing political motive claims. A Utah judge has kept the capital option available and scheduled further proceedings, with traders viewing conviction as probable but not assured given the pre-trial stage, potential plea negotiations, and remaining legal challenges. The 59% implied probability for conviction reflects this evidence strength tempered by the absence of a completed trial or verdict.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$290,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Tyler Robinson faces charges of aggravated murder and related felonies for the September 2025 fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.** Prosecutors presented DNA evidence linking him to the rifle, video of his movements, text messages, and statements described as confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing, prompting descriptions of the case as “overwhelming” and “straightforward” for a bindover decision. Robinson turned himself in the day after the shooting and has not yet entered a plea. Defense filings in mid-August 2026 argue the death penalty should be removed because the shot hit only the intended target without endangering others, while disputing political motive claims. A Utah judge has kept the capital option available and scheduled further proceedings, with traders viewing conviction as probable but not assured given the pre-trial stage, potential plea negotiations, and remaining legal challenges. The 59% implied probability for conviction reflects this evidence strength tempered by the absence of a completed trial or verdict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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