United Russia maintains overwhelming trader consensus as the likely winner of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections due to its position as the ruling party with strong institutional backing, including favorable ballot placement in many regions and a full slate of candidates across single-member districts. Recent developments include the party's June congress approving a federal list headed by figures such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, alongside presidential endorsement and extensive preliminary voting participation. Other registered parties face documented constraints on competition, including Supreme Court actions removing some lists and reported pressures limiting opposition candidates in key districts. This setup aligns with historical patterns where the incumbent secures a constitutional majority through the mixed electoral system. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to major late developments, such as significant shifts in voter mobilization or unforeseen institutional changes within the narrow pre-election window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 98.8%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) <1%
$3,387,382 Vol.
$3,387,382 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
99%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
New People (NL)
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
<1%
Yabloko
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 98.8%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) <1%
$3,387,382 Vol.
$3,387,382 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$891,344 Vol.
99%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$196,953 Vol.
1%
New People (NL)
$159,791 Vol.
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$225,191 Vol.
<1%
Yabloko
$61,709 Vol.
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$742,252 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$505,710 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$604,433 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia maintains overwhelming trader consensus as the likely winner of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections due to its position as the ruling party with strong institutional backing, including favorable ballot placement in many regions and a full slate of candidates across single-member districts. Recent developments include the party's June congress approving a federal list headed by figures such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, alongside presidential endorsement and extensive preliminary voting participation. Other registered parties face documented constraints on competition, including Supreme Court actions removing some lists and reported pressures limiting opposition candidates in key districts. This setup aligns with historical patterns where the incumbent secures a constitutional majority through the mixed electoral system. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to major late developments, such as significant shifts in voter mobilization or unforeseen institutional changes within the narrow pre-election window.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$3,387,382End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia maintains overwhelming trader consensus as the likely winner of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections due to its position as the ruling party with strong institutional backing, including favorable ballot placement in many regions and a full slate of candidates across single-member districts. Recent developments include the party's June congress approving a federal list headed by figures such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, alongside presidential endorsement and extensive preliminary voting participation. Other registered parties face documented constraints on competition, including Supreme Court actions removing some lists and reported pressures limiting opposition candidates in key districts. This setup aligns with historical patterns where the incumbent secures a constitutional majority through the mixed electoral system. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to major late developments, such as significant shifts in voter mobilization or unforeseen institutional changes within the narrow pre-election window.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$3,387,382End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia maintains overwhelming trader consensus as the likely winner of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections due to its position as the ruling party with strong institutional backing, including favorable ballot placement in many regions and a full slate of candidates across single-member districts. Recent developments include the party's June congress approving a federal list headed by figures such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, alongside presidential endorsement and extensive preliminary voting participation. Other registered parties face documented constraints on competition, including Supreme Court actions removing some lists and reported pressures limiting opposition candidates in key districts. This setup aligns with historical patterns where the incumbent secures a constitutional majority through the mixed electoral system. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to major late developments, such as significant shifts in voter mobilization or unforeseen institutional changes within the narrow pre-election window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
51%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
84%
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