The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead near 30 percent heading into the October 5 election, positioning it as the clear frontrunner for the most seats under first-past-the-post rules, while the federalist vote remains fragmented among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ. Recent Léger surveys from mid-to-late August show the PQ holding steady, the CAQ rising to tie the PLQ at 23 percent, and Québec solidaire declining further, reflecting voter consolidation and new leadership transitions for the CAQ under Christine Fréchette and the PLQ under Charles Milliard. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assign the PQ overwhelming odds of securing a plurality or majority, driven by francophone support and the incumbent CAQ’s sharp drop from 2022 levels, though late shifts among flexible voters and regional dynamics could still narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 72%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$816,154 Vol.
$816,154 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
72%
CAQ
17%
PLQ
11%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 72%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$816,154 Vol.
$816,154 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$94,163 Vol.
72%
CAQ
$118,576 Vol.
17%
PLQ
$109,906 Vol.
11%
PCQ
$231,463 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead near 30 percent heading into the October 5 election, positioning it as the clear frontrunner for the most seats under first-past-the-post rules, while the federalist vote remains fragmented among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ. Recent Léger surveys from mid-to-late August show the PQ holding steady, the CAQ rising to tie the PLQ at 23 percent, and Québec solidaire declining further, reflecting voter consolidation and new leadership transitions for the CAQ under Christine Fréchette and the PLQ under Charles Milliard. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assign the PQ overwhelming odds of securing a plurality or majority, driven by francophone support and the incumbent CAQ’s sharp drop from 2022 levels, though late shifts among flexible voters and regional dynamics could still narrow the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$816,154End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead near 30 percent heading into the October 5 election, positioning it as the clear frontrunner for the most seats under first-past-the-post rules, while the federalist vote remains fragmented among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ. Recent Léger surveys from mid-to-late August show the PQ holding steady, the CAQ rising to tie the PLQ at 23 percent, and Québec solidaire declining further, reflecting voter consolidation and new leadership transitions for the CAQ under Christine Fréchette and the PLQ under Charles Milliard. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assign the PQ overwhelming odds of securing a plurality or majority, driven by francophone support and the incumbent CAQ’s sharp drop from 2022 levels, though late shifts among flexible voters and regional dynamics could still narrow the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$816,154End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead near 30 percent heading into the October 5 election, positioning it as the clear frontrunner for the most seats under first-past-the-post rules, while the federalist vote remains fragmented among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ. Recent Léger surveys from mid-to-late August show the PQ holding steady, the CAQ rising to tie the PLQ at 23 percent, and Québec solidaire declining further, reflecting voter consolidation and new leadership transitions for the CAQ under Christine Fréchette and the PLQ under Charles Milliard. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assign the PQ overwhelming odds of securing a plurality or majority, driven by francophone support and the incumbent CAQ’s sharp drop from 2022 levels, though late shifts among flexible voters and regional dynamics could still narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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