**Nawaf Salam has served as Lebanon’s prime minister since February 2025, following his parliamentary nomination with 84 votes after President Joseph Aoun’s election.** His transitional government, formed amid Hezbollah’s weakened position after the Israel conflict and regional shifts including the fall of the Assad regime, has focused on state sovereignty, ceasefire implementation, army deployment in the south, and economic reforms. Parliamentary elections originally set for May 2026 were postponed by two years to 2028 due to the security situation, removing a key near-term trigger for government change. As of late August 2026, Salam remains incumbent, recently securing a confidence vote and continuing public diplomacy on Israeli withdrawal and state authority. Internal frictions, such as disputes over legislation, have not escalated into cabinet collapse or resignation demands. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” on him leaving office before year-end, reflecting the absence of scheduled electoral resets, limited opposition momentum against the current alignment, and his demonstrated continuity in office through mid-2026. Late developments like renewed security incidents or parliamentary realignments could still introduce volatility, but no such catalysts have materialized.