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icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Main Election

Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Main Election

Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place

Raimundo Moreira 28%

Wilson Leite 22%

Fufuca 22%

Roseana Sarney 22%

Polymarket
NEW

Raimundo Moreira 28%

Wilson Leite 22%

Fufuca 22%

Roseana Sarney 22%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Raimundo Moreira

Raimundo Moreira

$36 Vol.

28%

icon for Wilson Leite

Wilson Leite

$36 Vol.

22%

icon for Fufuca

Fufuca

$52 Vol.

25%

icon for Roseana Sarney

Roseana Sarney

$36 Vol.

22%

icon for Cidônio Gonçalves

Cidônio Gonçalves

$36 Vol.

20%

icon for Eliziane Gama

Eliziane Gama

$36 Vol.

20%

icon for Weverton Rocha

Weverton Rocha

$36 Vol.

20%

icon for Lahesio Bonfim

Lahesio Bonfim

$36 Vol.

20%

icon for Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

$36 Vol.

18%

icon for Simplício Araújo

Simplício Araújo

$36 Vol.

18%

icon for Enilton Rodrigues

Enilton Rodrigues

$36 Vol.

14%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Weverton Rocha (PDT) and Eliziane Gama (PT) hold the highest implied probabilities for second place in the October 4, 2026 Maranhão Senate election, reflecting their incumbency advantages and established voter bases amid a crowded field of eleven registered candidates. Recent polls, including Ippi and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show Roseana Sarney (MDB) leading for first while the second spot remains fragmented among Rocha, Gama, André Fufuca (PP), and Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), with technical ties in combined first-and-second vote scenarios. Trader consensus in the prediction market mirrors these dynamics, pricing the contest tightly due to low name recognition for several challengers and the two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events through September could shift positioning before ballots are cast.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$412
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Weverton Rocha (PDT) and Eliziane Gama (PT) hold the highest implied probabilities for second place in the October 4, 2026 Maranhão Senate election, reflecting their incumbency advantages and established voter bases amid a crowded field of eleven registered candidates. Recent polls, including Ippi and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show Roseana Sarney (MDB) leading for first while the second spot remains fragmented among Rocha, Gama, André Fufuca (PP), and Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), with technical ties in combined first-and-second vote scenarios. Trader consensus in the prediction market mirrors these dynamics, pricing the contest tightly due to low name recognition for several challengers and the two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events through September could shift positioning before ballots are cast.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$412
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Raimundo Moreira" at 28%, followed by "Fufuca" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Raimundo Moreira" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fufuca" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.