**Trader consensus heavily favors a 78-79°F low for Miami on September 16, 2026, at 93.5% implied probability.** This reflects the official National Weather Service observation of a 79°F minimum at Miami International Airport around 1:32 AM, just 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 77°F. Persistent cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, elevated humidity near 80%, and moderate east-northeast winds limited overnight radiational cooling under typical late-summer conditions. These factors kept the low close to the recent daily average of roughly 77-79°F seen in prior years. The strong market positioning aligns with verified NWS data rather than forecasts. A clearer, drier night with lighter winds could have allowed the temperature to dip into the mid-70s, but the observed moisture and storm activity made that outcome unlikely. The market should resolve promptly once final climatological reports are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 16?
78-79°F 94%
74-75°F 6%
76-77°F 3%
72-73°F <1%
$7,319 Vol.
$7,319 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
94%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 94%
74-75°F 6%
76-77°F 3%
72-73°F <1%
$7,319 Vol.
$7,319 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
$35 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$57 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$249 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$576 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$1,154 Vol.
94%
80-81°F
$1,979 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$275 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$208 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$1,023 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$847 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$923 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 78-79°F low for Miami on September 16, 2026, at 93.5% implied probability.** This reflects the official National Weather Service observation of a 79°F minimum at Miami International Airport around 1:32 AM, just 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 77°F.
Persistent cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, elevated humidity near 80%, and moderate east-northeast winds limited overnight radiational cooling under typical late-summer conditions. These factors kept the low close to the recent daily average of roughly 77-79°F seen in prior years.
The strong market positioning aligns with verified NWS data rather than forecasts. A clearer, drier night with lighter winds could have allowed the temperature to dip into the mid-70s, but the observed moisture and storm activity made that outcome unlikely. The market should resolve promptly once final climatological reports are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,319End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 78-79°F low for Miami on September 16, 2026, at 93.5% implied probability.** This reflects the official National Weather Service observation of a 79°F minimum at Miami International Airport around 1:32 AM, just 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 77°F.
Persistent cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, elevated humidity near 80%, and moderate east-northeast winds limited overnight radiational cooling under typical late-summer conditions. These factors kept the low close to the recent daily average of roughly 77-79°F seen in prior years.
The strong market positioning aligns with verified NWS data rather than forecasts. A clearer, drier night with lighter winds could have allowed the temperature to dip into the mid-70s, but the observed moisture and storm activity made that outcome unlikely. The market should resolve promptly once final climatological reports are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,319End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 78-79°F low for Miami on September 16, 2026, at 93.5% implied probability.** This reflects the official National Weather Service observation of a 79°F minimum at Miami International Airport around 1:32 AM, just 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 77°F. Persistent cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, elevated humidity near 80%, and moderate east-northeast winds limited overnight radiational cooling under typical late-summer conditions. These factors kept the low close to the recent daily average of roughly 77-79°F seen in prior years. The strong market positioning aligns with verified NWS data rather than forecasts. A clearer, drier night with lighter winds could have allowed the temperature to dip into the mid-70s, but the observed moisture and storm activity made that outcome unlikely. The market should resolve promptly once final climatological reports are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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