Trader consensus implies a near-certain 18°C minimum for Beijing on September 5, 2026, based on numerical weather prediction ensembles showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms, where early September diurnal ranges typically produce lows near 18°C following daytime maxima of 30–33°C. Official monitoring from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration emphasizes stable high-pressure influence limiting moisture and advection. While model spread remains modest, scenarios like enhanced boundary-layer mixing, unexpected cloud cover, or shifts in regional flow could realistically raise the recorded low by 1–2°C, though current data place such outcomes at low probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 5?
18°C 98%
17°C 4%
16°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C
98%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 98%
17°C 4%
16°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
14°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$116 Vol.
4%
18°C
$623 Vol.
98%
19°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus implies a near-certain 18°C minimum for Beijing on September 5, 2026, based on numerical weather prediction ensembles showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms, where early September diurnal ranges typically produce lows near 18°C following daytime maxima of 30–33°C. Official monitoring from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration emphasizes stable high-pressure influence limiting moisture and advection. While model spread remains modest, scenarios like enhanced boundary-layer mixing, unexpected cloud cover, or shifts in regional flow could realistically raise the recorded low by 1–2°C, though current data place such outcomes at low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,649End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus implies a near-certain 18°C minimum for Beijing on September 5, 2026, based on numerical weather prediction ensembles showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms, where early September diurnal ranges typically produce lows near 18°C following daytime maxima of 30–33°C. Official monitoring from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration emphasizes stable high-pressure influence limiting moisture and advection. While model spread remains modest, scenarios like enhanced boundary-layer mixing, unexpected cloud cover, or shifts in regional flow could realistically raise the recorded low by 1–2°C, though current data place such outcomes at low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,649End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus implies a near-certain 18°C minimum for Beijing on September 5, 2026, based on numerical weather prediction ensembles showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms, where early September diurnal ranges typically produce lows near 18°C following daytime maxima of 30–33°C. Official monitoring from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration emphasizes stable high-pressure influence limiting moisture and advection. While model spread remains modest, scenarios like enhanced boundary-layer mixing, unexpected cloud cover, or shifts in regional flow could realistically raise the recorded low by 1–2°C, though current data place such outcomes at low probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions