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icon for Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

icon for Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

4-5% 41%

2.5-3.25% 39%

3.25-4% 35%

<2.5% 28%

Polymarket
NEW

4-5% 41%

2.5-3.25% 39%

3.25-4% 35%

<2.5% 28%

Polymarket
NEW

<2.5%

$20 Vol.

47%

2.5-3.25%

$0 Vol.

39%

3.25-4%

$0 Vol.

35%

4-5%

$0 Vol.

41%

5%+

$0 Vol.

26%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$20
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$20
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<2.5%" at 47%, followed by "4-5%" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?" is "<2.5%" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-5%" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.