Official temperature records from Environment and Climate Change Canada and station observations confirm a daily maximum of 25°C in Toronto on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain outcome. This value sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 24.1°C for the date, driven by clear to partly cloudy conditions, light northwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allowed efficient daytime heating without significant precipitation or cooling. Traders incorporated real-time forecasts from Environment Canada and model consensus projecting a peak near 25–26°C, with post-event verification locking in the result. While station discrepancies or data revisions remain theoretically possible, such adjustments are rare for established urban sites and would require substantial new evidence to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$58,602 Vol.
$58,602 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$58,602 Vol.
$58,602 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$584 Vol.
No
22°C
$682 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,662 Vol.
No
24°C
$11,911 Vol.
No
25°C
$14,353 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$10,418 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,061 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,874 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,798 Vol.
No
30°C
$605 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$2,654 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature records from Environment and Climate Change Canada and station observations confirm a daily maximum of 25°C in Toronto on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain outcome. This value sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 24.1°C for the date, driven by clear to partly cloudy conditions, light northwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allowed efficient daytime heating without significant precipitation or cooling. Traders incorporated real-time forecasts from Environment Canada and model consensus projecting a peak near 25–26°C, with post-event verification locking in the result. While station discrepancies or data revisions remain theoretically possible, such adjustments are rare for established urban sites and would require substantial new evidence to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$58,602End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature records from Environment and Climate Change Canada and station observations confirm a daily maximum of 25°C in Toronto on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain outcome. This value sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 24.1°C for the date, driven by clear to partly cloudy conditions, light northwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allowed efficient daytime heating without significant precipitation or cooling. Traders incorporated real-time forecasts from Environment Canada and model consensus projecting a peak near 25–26°C, with post-event verification locking in the result. While station discrepancies or data revisions remain theoretically possible, such adjustments are rare for established urban sites and would require substantial new evidence to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58,602End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official temperature records from Environment and Climate Change Canada and station observations confirm a daily maximum of 25°C in Toronto on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain outcome. This value sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 24.1°C for the date, driven by clear to partly cloudy conditions, light northwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allowed efficient daytime heating without significant precipitation or cooling. Traders incorporated real-time forecasts from Environment Canada and model consensus projecting a peak near 25–26°C, with post-event verification locking in the result. While station discrepancies or data revisions remain theoretically possible, such adjustments are rare for established urban sites and would require substantial new evidence to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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