Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on September 5, 2026, most likely between 24°C and 25°C. Northwest winds and increasing high cloud cover are limiting daytime solar heating after a warmer prior day that reached 29°C, aligning with the climatological average high of 23°C for the date. Official forecasts from Météo-France and other sources project afternoon maxima near 24–25°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with low precipitation chances supporting stable conditions. This consensus among model ensembles underpins the market-implied odds favoring these two outcomes, while the low probabilities for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming absent clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model guidance through the afternoon will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 5?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 5?
24°C 53%
25°C 37%
23°C 6%
26°C 6%
$38,852 Vol.
$38,852 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
53%
25°C
37%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 53%
25°C 37%
23°C 6%
26°C 6%
$38,852 Vol.
$38,852 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$1,142 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,181 Vol.
1%
22°C
$3,123 Vol.
1%
23°C
$3,364 Vol.
6%
24°C
$7,483 Vol.
53%
25°C
$7,190 Vol.
37%
26°C
$6,486 Vol.
6%
27°C
$3,839 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,693 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$928 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on September 5, 2026, most likely between 24°C and 25°C. Northwest winds and increasing high cloud cover are limiting daytime solar heating after a warmer prior day that reached 29°C, aligning with the climatological average high of 23°C for the date. Official forecasts from Météo-France and other sources project afternoon maxima near 24–25°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with low precipitation chances supporting stable conditions. This consensus among model ensembles underpins the market-implied odds favoring these two outcomes, while the low probabilities for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming absent clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model guidance through the afternoon will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$38,852End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on September 5, 2026, most likely between 24°C and 25°C. Northwest winds and increasing high cloud cover are limiting daytime solar heating after a warmer prior day that reached 29°C, aligning with the climatological average high of 23°C for the date. Official forecasts from Météo-France and other sources project afternoon maxima near 24–25°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with low precipitation chances supporting stable conditions. This consensus among model ensembles underpins the market-implied odds favoring these two outcomes, while the low probabilities for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming absent clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model guidance through the afternoon will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,852End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on September 5, 2026, most likely between 24°C and 25°C. Northwest winds and increasing high cloud cover are limiting daytime solar heating after a warmer prior day that reached 29°C, aligning with the climatological average high of 23°C for the date. Official forecasts from Météo-France and other sources project afternoon maxima near 24–25°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with low precipitation chances supporting stable conditions. This consensus among model ensembles underpins the market-implied odds favoring these two outcomes, while the low probabilities for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming absent clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model guidance through the afternoon will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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