Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a peak temperature of 31–33°C in Milan on September 6 under stable high-pressure conditions, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or precipitation. These factors position 32°C as the leading market outcome at 60.5% implied probability, followed closely by 31°C at 35.5%, reflecting the tight clustering of official guidance around the upper end of typical early-September norms for the Po Valley. A warmer 33°C scenario remains possible if boundary-layer mixing or advection strengthens slightly, though its lower 5% odds align with the narrower upside in current runs. Final resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from Milan’s official stations as new model updates and observations arrive overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 6?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 6?
32°C 62%
31°C 35%
33°C 5%
30°C 3%
NEW
$10,678 Vol.
NEW
$10,678 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
35%
32°C
62%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 62%
31°C 35%
33°C 5%
30°C 3%
NEW
$10,678 Vol.
NEW
$10,678 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
27°C or below
$1,681 Vol.
1%
28°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$788 Vol.
3%
31°C
$1,660 Vol.
35%
32°C
$2,768 Vol.
62%
33°C
$1,089 Vol.
5%
34°C
$366 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$738 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$362 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$543 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a peak temperature of 31–33°C in Milan on September 6 under stable high-pressure conditions, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or precipitation. These factors position 32°C as the leading market outcome at 60.5% implied probability, followed closely by 31°C at 35.5%, reflecting the tight clustering of official guidance around the upper end of typical early-September norms for the Po Valley. A warmer 33°C scenario remains possible if boundary-layer mixing or advection strengthens slightly, though its lower 5% odds align with the narrower upside in current runs. Final resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from Milan’s official stations as new model updates and observations arrive overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,678End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a peak temperature of 31–33°C in Milan on September 6 under stable high-pressure conditions, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or precipitation. These factors position 32°C as the leading market outcome at 60.5% implied probability, followed closely by 31°C at 35.5%, reflecting the tight clustering of official guidance around the upper end of typical early-September norms for the Po Valley. A warmer 33°C scenario remains possible if boundary-layer mixing or advection strengthens slightly, though its lower 5% odds align with the narrower upside in current runs. Final resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from Milan’s official stations as new model updates and observations arrive overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,678End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a peak temperature of 31–33°C in Milan on September 6 under stable high-pressure conditions, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or precipitation. These factors position 32°C as the leading market outcome at 60.5% implied probability, followed closely by 31°C at 35.5%, reflecting the tight clustering of official guidance around the upper end of typical early-September norms for the Po Valley. A warmer 33°C scenario remains possible if boundary-layer mixing or advection strengthens slightly, though its lower 5% odds align with the narrower upside in current runs. Final resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from Milan’s official stations as new model updates and observations arrive overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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