Current forecast models from agencies including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles point to a daily maximum of 24–26°C in Mexico City on September 5, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, seasonal rainy-season cloud cover, and light winds that limit afternoon heating. Historical September highs average near 23–25°C, with recent model runs showing modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover allow more insolation, yet precipitation chances of 40–70% could cap peaks below 27°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability for exactly 26°C and 27% for 25°C aligns with this narrow range of official guidance, while lower outcomes remain discounted given minimal overnight cooling and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
26°C 46%
25°C 28%
27°C or higher 25%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
28%
26°C
46%
27°C or higher
25%
26°C 46%
25°C 28%
27°C or higher 25%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
$300 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$168 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$860 Vol.
4%
25°C
$2,666 Vol.
28%
26°C
$1,600 Vol.
46%
27°C or higher
$1,931 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles point to a daily maximum of 24–26°C in Mexico City on September 5, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, seasonal rainy-season cloud cover, and light winds that limit afternoon heating. Historical September highs average near 23–25°C, with recent model runs showing modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover allow more insolation, yet precipitation chances of 40–70% could cap peaks below 27°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability for exactly 26°C and 27% for 25°C aligns with this narrow range of official guidance, while lower outcomes remain discounted given minimal overnight cooling and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,718End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles point to a daily maximum of 24–26°C in Mexico City on September 5, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, seasonal rainy-season cloud cover, and light winds that limit afternoon heating. Historical September highs average near 23–25°C, with recent model runs showing modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover allow more insolation, yet precipitation chances of 40–70% could cap peaks below 27°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability for exactly 26°C and 27% for 25°C aligns with this narrow range of official guidance, while lower outcomes remain discounted given minimal overnight cooling and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,718End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles point to a daily maximum of 24–26°C in Mexico City on September 5, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, seasonal rainy-season cloud cover, and light winds that limit afternoon heating. Historical September highs average near 23–25°C, with recent model runs showing modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover allow more insolation, yet precipitation chances of 40–70% could cap peaks below 27°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability for exactly 26°C and 27% for 25°C aligns with this narrow range of official guidance, while lower outcomes remain discounted given minimal overnight cooling and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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