Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high temperature in the low to mid-80s°F for Chicago on September 9, with daytime peaks near 80–84°F before potential showers and thunderstorms develop. This consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 80–83°F outcomes, stems from a post-heat-wave cooling pattern following early September highs exceeding 90°F, combined with increasing southwesterly flow, rising humidity, and cloud cover that limits afternoon solar heating. Historical September 9 averages near 78.6°F provide context, yet the current setup aligns with trader positioning around 80–83°F as the most probable range ahead of updated NWS model runs and official Chicago-area observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
82-83°F 46%
80-81°F 38%
84-85°F 24%
78-79°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
75°F or below
10%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
46%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
3%
82-83°F 46%
80-81°F 38%
84-85°F 24%
78-79°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$26 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
46%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
24%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
7%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high temperature in the low to mid-80s°F for Chicago on September 9, with daytime peaks near 80–84°F before potential showers and thunderstorms develop. This consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 80–83°F outcomes, stems from a post-heat-wave cooling pattern following early September highs exceeding 90°F, combined with increasing southwesterly flow, rising humidity, and cloud cover that limits afternoon solar heating. Historical September 9 averages near 78.6°F provide context, yet the current setup aligns with trader positioning around 80–83°F as the most probable range ahead of updated NWS model runs and official Chicago-area observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high temperature in the low to mid-80s°F for Chicago on September 9, with daytime peaks near 80–84°F before potential showers and thunderstorms develop. This consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 80–83°F outcomes, stems from a post-heat-wave cooling pattern following early September highs exceeding 90°F, combined with increasing southwesterly flow, rising humidity, and cloud cover that limits afternoon solar heating. Historical September 9 averages near 78.6°F provide context, yet the current setup aligns with trader positioning around 80–83°F as the most probable range ahead of updated NWS model runs and official Chicago-area observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high temperature in the low to mid-80s°F for Chicago on September 9, with daytime peaks near 80–84°F before potential showers and thunderstorms develop. This consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 80–83°F outcomes, stems from a post-heat-wave cooling pattern following early September highs exceeding 90°F, combined with increasing southwesterly flow, rising humidity, and cloud cover that limits afternoon solar heating. Historical September 9 averages near 78.6°F provide context, yet the current setup aligns with trader positioning around 80–83°F as the most probable range ahead of updated NWS model runs and official Chicago-area observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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