Forecast consensus from models and agencies including the Met Office and GFS data points to a daytime high of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes, as trader-implied probabilities reflect the low chance of significant deviation from seasonal norms in this maritime climate. Westerly flow off the North Sea limits warming while increased afternoon cloud cover caps solar heating, keeping peaks near the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C. Morning readings in the mid-teens and minimal precipitation risk further support the narrow range, with only modest upside potential if clearer conditions develop. Updated model runs and real-time observations will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
19°C 59%
18°C 30%
20°C 13%
17°C <1%
$25,798 Vol.
$25,798 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
30%
19°C
59%
20°C
13%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 59%
18°C 30%
20°C 13%
17°C <1%
$25,798 Vol.
$25,798 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
$149 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$149 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$229 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$762 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,079 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5,503 Vol.
30%
19°C
$7,287 Vol.
59%
20°C
$4,057 Vol.
13%
21°C
$2,554 Vol.
1%
22°C
$803 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from models and agencies including the Met Office and GFS data points to a daytime high of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes, as trader-implied probabilities reflect the low chance of significant deviation from seasonal norms in this maritime climate. Westerly flow off the North Sea limits warming while increased afternoon cloud cover caps solar heating, keeping peaks near the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C. Morning readings in the mid-teens and minimal precipitation risk further support the narrow range, with only modest upside potential if clearer conditions develop. Updated model runs and real-time observations will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$25,798End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from models and agencies including the Met Office and GFS data points to a daytime high of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes, as trader-implied probabilities reflect the low chance of significant deviation from seasonal norms in this maritime climate. Westerly flow off the North Sea limits warming while increased afternoon cloud cover caps solar heating, keeping peaks near the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C. Morning readings in the mid-teens and minimal precipitation risk further support the narrow range, with only modest upside potential if clearer conditions develop. Updated model runs and real-time observations will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,798End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from models and agencies including the Met Office and GFS data points to a daytime high of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes, as trader-implied probabilities reflect the low chance of significant deviation from seasonal norms in this maritime climate. Westerly flow off the North Sea limits warming while increased afternoon cloud cover caps solar heating, keeping peaks near the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C. Morning readings in the mid-teens and minimal precipitation risk further support the narrow range, with only modest upside potential if clearer conditions develop. Updated model runs and real-time observations will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions