Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, and his status as the two-term incumbent who secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger. The general election on November 3 features Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who advanced unopposed, alongside minor-party candidates, in a district where Democrats have routinely captured over 70 percent in recent cycles. Trader consensus pricing incorporates the limited path for Republican gains absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$36,791 Vol.
$36,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$36,791 Vol.
$36,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,163 Vol.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$21,627 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, and his status as the two-term incumbent who secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger. The general election on November 3 features Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who advanced unopposed, alongside minor-party candidates, in a district where Democrats have routinely captured over 70 percent in recent cycles. Trader consensus pricing incorporates the limited path for Republican gains absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$36,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, and his status as the two-term incumbent who secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger. The general election on November 3 features Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who advanced unopposed, alongside minor-party candidates, in a district where Democrats have routinely captured over 70 percent in recent cycles. Trader consensus pricing incorporates the limited path for Republican gains absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, and his status as the two-term incumbent who secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger. The general election on November 3 features Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who advanced unopposed, alongside minor-party candidates, in a district where Democrats have routinely captured over 70 percent in recent cycles. Trader consensus pricing incorporates the limited path for Republican gains absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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