Ryan Elijah's commanding lead in the FL-07 Republican primary margin market stems from the August 18, 2026, results, where he captured roughly 47% of the vote against incumbent Cory Mills at 34%, producing a margin near 13 points amid four-candidate field. Multiple ethics and misconduct investigations into Mills, including House Ethics Committee and Justice Department reviews tied to campaign finance and personal allegations, eroded his support despite prior Trump backing. Elijah benefited from late endorsements by local sheriffs and congressional Republicans, stronger ad spending in the closing weeks, and polling trends that showed him pulling ahead in the final stretch. With unofficial tallies already in and certification pending, traders see little realistic path for the margin to shift outside the 10–15% band absent major vote-count disputes or recounts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElijah 10–15% 99.4%
Elijah 25%+ 2.3%
Elijah 20–25% 1.2%
Elijah 5–10% 1.1%
$3,036 Vol.
$3,036 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Mills 25%+
<1%
Mills 20–25%
<1%
Mills 15–20%
<1%
Mills 10–15%
<1%
Mills 5–10%
<1%
Mills <5%
1%
Elijah <5%
1%
Elijah 5–10%
1%
Elijah 10–15%
99%
Elijah 15–20%
<1%
Elijah 20–25%
1%
Elijah 25%+
2%
Elijah 10–15% 99.4%
Elijah 25%+ 2.3%
Elijah 20–25% 1.2%
Elijah 5–10% 1.1%
$3,036 Vol.
$3,036 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Mills 25%+
$362 Vol.
<1%
Mills 20–25%
$273 Vol.
<1%
Mills 15–20%
$458 Vol.
<1%
Mills 10–15%
$305 Vol.
<1%
Mills 5–10%
$255 Vol.
<1%
Mills <5%
$305 Vol.
1%
Elijah <5%
$105 Vol.
1%
Elijah 5–10%
$255 Vol.
1%
Elijah 10–15%
$85 Vol.
99%
Elijah 15–20%
$265 Vol.
<1%
Elijah 20–25%
$255 Vol.
1%
Elijah 25%+
$112 Vol.
2%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ryan Elijah's commanding lead in the FL-07 Republican primary margin market stems from the August 18, 2026, results, where he captured roughly 47% of the vote against incumbent Cory Mills at 34%, producing a margin near 13 points amid four-candidate field. Multiple ethics and misconduct investigations into Mills, including House Ethics Committee and Justice Department reviews tied to campaign finance and personal allegations, eroded his support despite prior Trump backing. Elijah benefited from late endorsements by local sheriffs and congressional Republicans, stronger ad spending in the closing weeks, and polling trends that showed him pulling ahead in the final stretch. With unofficial tallies already in and certification pending, traders see little realistic path for the margin to shift outside the 10–15% band absent major vote-count disputes or recounts.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,036End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ryan Elijah's commanding lead in the FL-07 Republican primary margin market stems from the August 18, 2026, results, where he captured roughly 47% of the vote against incumbent Cory Mills at 34%, producing a margin near 13 points amid four-candidate field. Multiple ethics and misconduct investigations into Mills, including House Ethics Committee and Justice Department reviews tied to campaign finance and personal allegations, eroded his support despite prior Trump backing. Elijah benefited from late endorsements by local sheriffs and congressional Republicans, stronger ad spending in the closing weeks, and polling trends that showed him pulling ahead in the final stretch. With unofficial tallies already in and certification pending, traders see little realistic path for the margin to shift outside the 10–15% band absent major vote-count disputes or recounts.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,036End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ryan Elijah's commanding lead in the FL-07 Republican primary margin market stems from the August 18, 2026, results, where he captured roughly 47% of the vote against incumbent Cory Mills at 34%, producing a margin near 13 points amid four-candidate field. Multiple ethics and misconduct investigations into Mills, including House Ethics Committee and Justice Department reviews tied to campaign finance and personal allegations, eroded his support despite prior Trump backing. Elijah benefited from late endorsements by local sheriffs and congressional Republicans, stronger ad spending in the closing weeks, and polling trends that showed him pulling ahead in the final stretch. With unofficial tallies already in and certification pending, traders see little realistic path for the margin to shift outside the 10–15% band absent major vote-count disputes or recounts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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