Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing alongside Republican Chuong Vo. This outcome, in a district with a modest Democratic partisan lean and substantial Asian-American voter base in Orange County, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Tran's 2024 victory margin and incumbency provide structural advantages, while a fragmented Republican primary field limited the emergence of a consolidated challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting registration patterns and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the November general election trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,726 Vol.
88%
Republican Party
$6,336 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing alongside Republican Chuong Vo. This outcome, in a district with a modest Democratic partisan lean and substantial Asian-American voter base in Orange County, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Tran's 2024 victory margin and incumbency provide structural advantages, while a fragmented Republican primary field limited the emergence of a consolidated challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting registration patterns and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the November general election trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$8,061শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing alongside Republican Chuong Vo. This outcome, in a district with a modest Democratic partisan lean and substantial Asian-American voter base in Orange County, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Tran's 2024 victory margin and incumbency provide structural advantages, while a fragmented Republican primary field limited the emergence of a consolidated challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting registration patterns and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the November general election trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$8,061শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing alongside Republican Chuong Vo. This outcome, in a district with a modest Democratic partisan lean and substantial Asian-American voter base in Orange County, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Tran's 2024 victory margin and incumbency provide structural advantages, while a fragmented Republican primary field limited the emergence of a consolidated challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting registration patterns and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the November general election trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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