Recent polling for Bahia’s October 2026 gubernatorial election shows incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União) locked in a technical tie, with both hovering near or above 47% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. Multiple surveys, including AtlasIntel’s late-August to early-September sample, confirm the narrow gap persists within margins of error, driven by Rodrigues’ incumbency and state-government approval ratings near 57% offset by Neto’s strong name recognition from his Salvador mayoral tenure and consolidated opposition support. Minor candidates remain below 2%, leaving the contest effectively bipolar. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major campaign developments such as candidate debates, shifts in voter turnout patterns among key demographics, or late-cycle endorsements that could consolidate undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 49%
ACM Neto 46%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$137,138 Vol.
$137,138 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
49%
ACM Neto
46%
João Roma
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 49%
ACM Neto 46%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$137,138 Vol.
$137,138 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$44,339 Vol.
49%
ACM Neto
$50,675 Vol.
46%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for Bahia’s October 2026 gubernatorial election shows incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União) locked in a technical tie, with both hovering near or above 47% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. Multiple surveys, including AtlasIntel’s late-August to early-September sample, confirm the narrow gap persists within margins of error, driven by Rodrigues’ incumbency and state-government approval ratings near 57% offset by Neto’s strong name recognition from his Salvador mayoral tenure and consolidated opposition support. Minor candidates remain below 2%, leaving the contest effectively bipolar. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major campaign developments such as candidate debates, shifts in voter turnout patterns among key demographics, or late-cycle endorsements that could consolidate undecided voters.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$137,138End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for Bahia’s October 2026 gubernatorial election shows incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União) locked in a technical tie, with both hovering near or above 47% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. Multiple surveys, including AtlasIntel’s late-August to early-September sample, confirm the narrow gap persists within margins of error, driven by Rodrigues’ incumbency and state-government approval ratings near 57% offset by Neto’s strong name recognition from his Salvador mayoral tenure and consolidated opposition support. Minor candidates remain below 2%, leaving the contest effectively bipolar. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major campaign developments such as candidate debates, shifts in voter turnout patterns among key demographics, or late-cycle endorsements that could consolidate undecided voters.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$137,138End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Bahia’s October 2026 gubernatorial election shows incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União) locked in a technical tie, with both hovering near or above 47% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. Multiple surveys, including AtlasIntel’s late-August to early-September sample, confirm the narrow gap persists within margins of error, driven by Rodrigues’ incumbency and state-government approval ratings near 57% offset by Neto’s strong name recognition from his Salvador mayoral tenure and consolidated opposition support. Minor candidates remain below 2%, leaving the contest effectively bipolar. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major campaign developments such as candidate debates, shifts in voter turnout patterns among key demographics, or late-cycle endorsements that could consolidate undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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