Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha/O Povo, and AtlasIntel shows a tight contest for the two Ceará Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) often edging or tying Luizianne Lins (Rede) and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) in the low-to-mid 20s. Traders assign Cid the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting his name recognition, reelection bid, and alignment with the federal government amid a fragmented field of eight registered candidates. The race remains competitive due to shifting second-preference flows, regional strongholds, and Brazil’s open-list system, where small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Catarina Matos 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
55%
Capitão Wagner
26%
Luizianne
12%
Catarina Matos
5%
Alcides Fernandes
5%
Lino Alves
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
4%
Reginaldo
3%
Cid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Catarina Matos 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
$573 Vol.
55%
Capitão Wagner
$174 Vol.
26%
Luizianne
$41 Vol.
12%
Catarina Matos
$109 Vol.
5%
Alcides Fernandes
$40 Vol.
5%
Lino Alves
$86 Vol.
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
$86 Vol.
4%
Reginaldo
$88 Vol.
3%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha/O Povo, and AtlasIntel shows a tight contest for the two Ceará Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) often edging or tying Luizianne Lins (Rede) and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) in the low-to-mid 20s. Traders assign Cid the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting his name recognition, reelection bid, and alignment with the federal government amid a fragmented field of eight registered candidates. The race remains competitive due to shifting second-preference flows, regional strongholds, and Brazil’s open-list system, where small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,198End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha/O Povo, and AtlasIntel shows a tight contest for the two Ceará Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) often edging or tying Luizianne Lins (Rede) and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) in the low-to-mid 20s. Traders assign Cid the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting his name recognition, reelection bid, and alignment with the federal government amid a fragmented field of eight registered candidates. The race remains competitive due to shifting second-preference flows, regional strongholds, and Brazil’s open-list system, where small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,198End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha/O Povo, and AtlasIntel shows a tight contest for the two Ceará Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) often edging or tying Luizianne Lins (Rede) and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) in the low-to-mid 20s. Traders assign Cid the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting his name recognition, reelection bid, and alignment with the federal government amid a fragmented field of eight registered candidates. The race remains competitive due to shifting second-preference flows, regional strongholds, and Brazil’s open-list system, where small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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