In Ceará's 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest where no candidate has established a clear edge for second place. Recent Datafolha polling shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) and Capitão Wagner (União) in a technical tie at the top, with Luizianne Lins and several others close behind in a multi-candidate field that includes Guilherme Theophilo, Reginaldo, Catarina Matos, and Alcides Fernandes. This structure keeps implied probabilities tight as vote splitting among opposition and government-aligned contenders sustains uncertainty. Upcoming polling releases, party coalition announcements, and campaign momentum in the final weeks before the October election could consolidate support and shift positioning for the second seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Wagner 34%
Guilherme Theophilo 29%
Cid Gomes 16%
Reginaldo 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
40%
Guilherme Theophilo
29%
Cid Gomes
16%
Reginaldo
11%
Catarina Matos
11%
Alcides Fernandes
10%
Luizianne
7%
Lino Alves
4%
Capitão Wagner 34%
Guilherme Theophilo 29%
Cid Gomes 16%
Reginaldo 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$769 Vol.
40%
Guilherme Theophilo
$40 Vol.
29%
Cid Gomes
$100 Vol.
16%
Reginaldo
$40 Vol.
11%
Catarina Matos
$40 Vol.
11%
Alcides Fernandes
$82 Vol.
10%
Luizianne
$40 Vol.
7%
Lino Alves
$109 Vol.
4%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Ceará's 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest where no candidate has established a clear edge for second place. Recent Datafolha polling shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) and Capitão Wagner (União) in a technical tie at the top, with Luizianne Lins and several others close behind in a multi-candidate field that includes Guilherme Theophilo, Reginaldo, Catarina Matos, and Alcides Fernandes. This structure keeps implied probabilities tight as vote splitting among opposition and government-aligned contenders sustains uncertainty. Upcoming polling releases, party coalition announcements, and campaign momentum in the final weeks before the October election could consolidate support and shift positioning for the second seat.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,220End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Ceará's 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest where no candidate has established a clear edge for second place. Recent Datafolha polling shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) and Capitão Wagner (União) in a technical tie at the top, with Luizianne Lins and several others close behind in a multi-candidate field that includes Guilherme Theophilo, Reginaldo, Catarina Matos, and Alcides Fernandes. This structure keeps implied probabilities tight as vote splitting among opposition and government-aligned contenders sustains uncertainty. Upcoming polling releases, party coalition announcements, and campaign momentum in the final weeks before the October election could consolidate support and shift positioning for the second seat.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,220End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Ceará's 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest where no candidate has established a clear edge for second place. Recent Datafolha polling shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) and Capitão Wagner (União) in a technical tie at the top, with Luizianne Lins and several others close behind in a multi-candidate field that includes Guilherme Theophilo, Reginaldo, Catarina Matos, and Alcides Fernandes. This structure keeps implied probabilities tight as vote splitting among opposition and government-aligned contenders sustains uncertainty. Upcoming polling releases, party coalition announcements, and campaign momentum in the final weeks before the October election could consolidate support and shift positioning for the second seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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