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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 92%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Escritor Augusto Cury 1.6%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Lula 92%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Escritor Augusto Cury 1.6%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lula

Lula

$882 Vol.

92%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$171 Vol.

7%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$95 Vol.

2%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$175 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$295 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, 2026, buoyed by consistent polling leads of three to ten points over the nearest challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and AtlasIntel. The incumbent Workers’ Party candidate benefits from established voter coalitions in key regions, ongoing campaign organization, and the fragmented opposition field that includes multiple center-right and right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Recent campaign milestones, including the start of free electoral broadcasts and the initial presidential debate, have not altered Lula’s first-round edge despite a narrowing runoff margin in some head-to-head simulations. Trader consensus on a first-round victory reflects these structural advantages, though shifts could arise from further consolidation of opposition support, unexpected polling momentum for emerging names like Cury, or late developments in the final weeks before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,538
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, 2026, buoyed by consistent polling leads of three to ten points over the nearest challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and AtlasIntel. The incumbent Workers’ Party candidate benefits from established voter coalitions in key regions, ongoing campaign organization, and the fragmented opposition field that includes multiple center-right and right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Recent campaign milestones, including the start of free electoral broadcasts and the initial presidential debate, have not altered Lula’s first-round edge despite a narrowing runoff margin in some head-to-head simulations. Trader consensus on a first-round victory reflects these structural advantages, though shifts could arise from further consolidation of opposition support, unexpected polling momentum for emerging names like Cury, or late developments in the final weeks before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,538
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

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icon for Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

52%
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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 92%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is "Lula" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.