A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and models favoring a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, serves as the main near-term driver pushing August 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.42–1.45°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming has elevated the baseline, while the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole and record-high tropical sea surface temperatures add further upward pressure; however, the typical multi-month lag in El Niño's global temperature response introduces uncertainty for this specific month. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight above-average land temperatures worldwide through the season, with trader consensus reflecting these factors amid model spread in exact monthly outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
4%
1.30–1.33ºC
2%
1.34–1.37ºC
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
42%
1.42–1.45ºC
48%
>1.45ºC
16%
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$51 Vol.
4%
1.30–1.33ºC
$605 Vol.
2%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,479 Vol.
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
$215 Vol.
42%
1.42–1.45ºC
$726 Vol.
48%
>1.45ºC
$256 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and models favoring a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, serves as the main near-term driver pushing August 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.42–1.45°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming has elevated the baseline, while the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole and record-high tropical sea surface temperatures add further upward pressure; however, the typical multi-month lag in El Niño's global temperature response introduces uncertainty for this specific month. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight above-average land temperatures worldwide through the season, with trader consensus reflecting these factors amid model spread in exact monthly outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and models favoring a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, serves as the main near-term driver pushing August 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.42–1.45°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming has elevated the baseline, while the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole and record-high tropical sea surface temperatures add further upward pressure; however, the typical multi-month lag in El Niño's global temperature response introduces uncertainty for this specific month. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight above-average land temperatures worldwide through the season, with trader consensus reflecting these factors amid model spread in exact monthly outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and models favoring a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, serves as the main near-term driver pushing August 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.42–1.45°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming has elevated the baseline, while the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole and record-high tropical sea surface temperatures add further upward pressure; however, the typical multi-month lag in El Niño's global temperature response introduces uncertainty for this specific month. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight above-average land temperatures worldwide through the season, with trader consensus reflecting these factors amid model spread in exact monthly outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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