Recent monthly GDP data, including a stronger-than-expected 0.4% July expansion driven by services and AI-related software activity, alongside Q2’s 0.4% QoQ print, have anchored trader expectations for modest Q3 growth near the 0.2–0.5% range. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities as they align with the Bank of England’s subdued 2026 projection of 1.1% annual growth amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and CPI rising to 2.9% in July. Forecaster consensus clusters around similar quarterly rates, tempered by softening household spending and production weakness, while the September 17 Bank Rate decision and upcoming inflation releases could refine probabilities ahead of the November first estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el tercer trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el tercer trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
0,2–0,3% 42%
0,4–0,5% 26%
0,0–0,1% 22%
0,6–0,7% 5.8%
$19,080 Vol.
$19,080 Vol.
11 nov 2026
Negativo
6%
0,0–0,1%
22%
0,2–0,3%
42%
0,4–0,5%
26%
0,6–0,7%
6%
0,8–0,9%
<1%
1,0%+
2%
0,2–0,3% 42%
0,4–0,5% 26%
0,0–0,1% 22%
0,6–0,7% 5.8%
$19,080 Vol.
$19,080 Vol.
11 nov 2026
Negativo
$4,029 Vol.
6%
0,0–0,1%
$5,965 Vol.
22%
0,2–0,3%
$6,704 Vol.
42%
0,4–0,5%
$1,674 Vol.
26%
0,6–0,7%
$270 Vol.
6%
0,8–0,9%
$201 Vol.
<1%
1,0%+
$237 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data, including a stronger-than-expected 0.4% July expansion driven by services and AI-related software activity, alongside Q2’s 0.4% QoQ print, have anchored trader expectations for modest Q3 growth near the 0.2–0.5% range. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities as they align with the Bank of England’s subdued 2026 projection of 1.1% annual growth amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and CPI rising to 2.9% in July. Forecaster consensus clusters around similar quarterly rates, tempered by softening household spending and production weakness, while the September 17 Bank Rate decision and upcoming inflation releases could refine probabilities ahead of the November first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volumen
$19,080Fecha de finalización
12 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data, including a stronger-than-expected 0.4% July expansion driven by services and AI-related software activity, alongside Q2’s 0.4% QoQ print, have anchored trader expectations for modest Q3 growth near the 0.2–0.5% range. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities as they align with the Bank of England’s subdued 2026 projection of 1.1% annual growth amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and CPI rising to 2.9% in July. Forecaster consensus clusters around similar quarterly rates, tempered by softening household spending and production weakness, while the September 17 Bank Rate decision and upcoming inflation releases could refine probabilities ahead of the November first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$19,080Fecha de finalización
12 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly GDP data, including a stronger-than-expected 0.4% July expansion driven by services and AI-related software activity, alongside Q2’s 0.4% QoQ print, have anchored trader expectations for modest Q3 growth near the 0.2–0.5% range. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities as they align with the Bank of England’s subdued 2026 projection of 1.1% annual growth amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and CPI rising to 2.9% in July. Forecaster consensus clusters around similar quarterly rates, tempered by softening household spending and production weakness, while the September 17 Bank Rate decision and upcoming inflation releases could refine probabilities ahead of the November first estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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