The overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for a 13°C low in Warsaw on August 23 stem from consistent official forecasts projecting a nighttime minimum near that threshold. Models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather indicate clear to partly cloudy conditions with overnight radiative cooling yielding lows of 13–14°C, aligning with late-August climatology where average minima hover around 12–14°C. This consensus draws from ensemble runs showing limited variability in surface temperatures under moderate westerly flow. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold advection or clearer skies accelerating cooling below 12°C, though current observations and short-term model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast outputs heavily in positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 23 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 23 de agosto?
13°C 97%
12°C 3%
11°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$3,012 Vol.
$3,012 Vol.
23 ago 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
97%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 97%
12°C 3%
11°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$3,012 Vol.
$3,012 Vol.
23 ago 2026
8°C or below
$342 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$171 Vol.
1%
12°C
$92 Vol.
3%
13°C
$467 Vol.
97%
14°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$164 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$184 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for a 13°C low in Warsaw on August 23 stem from consistent official forecasts projecting a nighttime minimum near that threshold. Models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather indicate clear to partly cloudy conditions with overnight radiative cooling yielding lows of 13–14°C, aligning with late-August climatology where average minima hover around 12–14°C. This consensus draws from ensemble runs showing limited variability in surface temperatures under moderate westerly flow. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold advection or clearer skies accelerating cooling below 12°C, though current observations and short-term model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast outputs heavily in positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$3,012Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for a 13°C low in Warsaw on August 23 stem from consistent official forecasts projecting a nighttime minimum near that threshold. Models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather indicate clear to partly cloudy conditions with overnight radiative cooling yielding lows of 13–14°C, aligning with late-August climatology where average minima hover around 12–14°C. This consensus draws from ensemble runs showing limited variability in surface temperatures under moderate westerly flow. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold advection or clearer skies accelerating cooling below 12°C, though current observations and short-term model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast outputs heavily in positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,012Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for a 13°C low in Warsaw on August 23 stem from consistent official forecasts projecting a nighttime minimum near that threshold. Models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather indicate clear to partly cloudy conditions with overnight radiative cooling yielding lows of 13–14°C, aligning with late-August climatology where average minima hover around 12–14°C. This consensus draws from ensemble runs showing limited variability in surface temperatures under moderate westerly flow. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold advection or clearer skies accelerating cooling below 12°C, though current observations and short-term model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast outputs heavily in positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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