**Trader sentiment for Karachi’s lowest temperature on August 25 centers on the narrow 25–27 °C band, reflecting official forecast consensus for overnight lows near 26–27 °C.** Multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF runs referenced in recent outlooks) project minimums of 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies, moderate southwest winds of 10–14 mph, and high humidity near 70–90 % that limits radiative cooling. Recent conditions reinforce this outlook: the past several nights have recorded minima of 26–27 °C, with light drizzle and persistent cloud cover on August 22–23 providing modest additional cooling while preventing stronger daytime heating. Karachi’s coastal location on the Arabian Sea maintains a strong marine influence, keeping overnight temperatures elevated compared with inland sites and producing the typical late-August baseline near 27 °C. The closely matched probabilities around 25–27 °C capture residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and local measurement, while the 28.5 % on 32 °C+ likely prices in any upside surprise from reduced cloud cover or a temporary wind shift. The very low 1 % on 22 °C or below aligns with the absence of any cold-air advection mechanism in current steering patterns. Updated model runs and official Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers for further refinement.